June 29, 2026

Democratic Party plummets 24.0 points in NY-26 House — now at 70.0%

Polls Markets

Democratic Party fell 24.0 points to 70.0% in the NY-26 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 42.0% Democratic and House odds at 82.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
NY-26 House	Democratic Party	-24.0	70.0%
FL-13 House	Republican Party	+15.5	69.0%
TX-35 House	Republican Party	-12.5	44.5%
TX-35 House	Democratic Party	+8.0	50.0%
New Hampshire Governor	Republicans	+7.5	75.5%
MI-10 House	Republican Party	+7.5	42.5%
MI-10 House	Democratic Party	-5.5	56.0%
FL-13 House	Democratic Party	+5.0	34.0%
PA-08 House	Republican Party	+4.5	41.5%
NY-03 House	Democratic Party	+4.5	81.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 51.0%	Democrats: 50.0%	1.0 pts
NC-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 50.5%	Democratic Party: 49.5%	1.0 pts
Ohio Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 51.0%	Republicans: 49.0%	2.0 pts
TX-15 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 50.5%	Republican Party: 47.5%	3.0 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 52.5%	Democratic Party: 48.0%	4.5 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 29.5%, Mary Peltola: 70.5%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 4.0%, Republicans: 93.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 17.0%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 13.5%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 44.5%, Republicans: 56.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 95.5%, Democrats: 5.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.7%, Republicans: 2.4%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 83.0%, Democrats: 18.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 6.1%, Republicans: 94.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 7.5%, Republicans: 92.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.0%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 61.5%, Republicans: 39.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 27.5%, Democrats: 71.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 91.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 87.5%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.3%, an independent: 18.6%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 86.5%, Republicans: 14.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.2%, an independent: 27.0%, Republicans: 65.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 83.5%, Republicans: 13.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.0%, Republicans: 4.2%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.0%, Republicans: 2.9%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 57.5%, Republicans: 42.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.0%, Democrats: 5.7%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 5.5%, Democrats: 94.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.5%, Republicans: 82.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.3%, Democrats: 6.6%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.2%, Republicans: 94.3%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 43.5%, Republicans: 56.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.0%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.5%, Republicans: 95.2%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 3.7%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.3%, Shelley Hughes: 0.2%, Treg Taylor: 7.3%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.4%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 0.4%, Matt Claman: 0.2%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.5%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.7%, David Bronson: 6.7%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 0.9%, Matt Heilala: 0.2%, James Parkin: 0.4%, Bernadette Wilson: 23.5%, Tom Begich: 30.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.9%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.2%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.7%, Bill Walker: 7.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 89.1%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 94.7%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 77.5%, Republicans: 21.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 8.1%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 89.8%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.1%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.1%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.8%, Democrats: 92.6%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.5%, Democrats: 92.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 76.5%, Democrats: 23.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 51.0%, Democrats: 50.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.4%, Democrats: 93.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 65.0%, Republicans: 35.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.5%, Democrats: 94.8%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 88.0%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 84.0%, an independent: 2.9%, Republicans: 15.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.5%, Republicans: 82.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 24.2%, Republicans: 75.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 88.5%, Republicans: 10.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 49.0%, Democrats: 51.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 93.5%, Democrats: 7.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 11.0%, Democrats: 88.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 2.1%, an independent: 4.4%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.9%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 85.5%, Democrats: 11.2%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 21.0%, Democrats: 75.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
Alabama Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
Louisiana Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
Michigan Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
Minnesota Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
Mississippi Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
New Mexico Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
Ohio Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
Virginia Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 29

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-29 07:12 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 28, 2026

Republican Party plummets 13.5 points in FL-13 House — now at 53.5%

Polls Markets

Republican Party fell 13.5 points to 53.5% in the FL-13 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 42.5% Democratic and House odds at 82.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
FL-13 House	Republican Party	-13.5	53.5%
VA-01 House	Democratic Party	+12.5	60.0%
WA-03 House	Republican Party	+9.5	17.5%
WA-03 House	Democratic Party	-8.5	81.0%
NC-01 House	Republican Party	+8.5	51.5%
MI-04 House	Democratic Party	-7.0	36.5%
Nebraska Senate	an independent	-6.5	27.0%
Iowa Senate	Republicans	-6.0	55.5%
Iowa Senate	Democrats	+4.0	44.0%
New Hampshire Governor	Republicans	-4.0	68.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
Ohio Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 51.0%	Republicans: 50.0%	1.0 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.0%	Democratic Party: 48.5%	2.5 pts
NC-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.5%	Democratic Party: 49.0%	2.5 pts
TX-15 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 50.5%	Republican Party: 47.5%	3.0 pts
Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 50.5%	Democrats: 47.0%	3.5 pts
FL-22 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 51.5%	Republican Party: 48.0%	3.5 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 31.0%, Mary Peltola: 70.0%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 4.0%, Republicans: 93.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 17.0%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.8%, Democrats: 85.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 44.0%, Republicans: 55.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 95.5%, Democrats: 5.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.7%, Republicans: 2.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 83.0%, Democrats: 18.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 6.1%, Republicans: 94.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 7.5%, Republicans: 92.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 61.5%, Republicans: 38.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 27.5%, Democrats: 72.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 87.5%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.3%, an independent: 19.7%, Republicans: 78.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 86.5%, Republicans: 14.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.4%, an independent: 27.0%, Republicans: 65.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 84.5%, Republicans: 14.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.7%, Republicans: 2.8%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 55.5%, Republicans: 44.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.9%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 5.5%, Democrats: 94.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.5%, Republicans: 82.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.7%, Democrats: 6.6%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.4%, Republicans: 93.7%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 42.0%, Republicans: 56.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.6%, Republicans: 95.2%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 3.8%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.3%, Shelley Hughes: 0.4%, Treg Taylor: 7.3%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.4%, Mary Peltola: 0.2%, Hank Kroll: 0.4%, Matt Claman: 0.1%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.7%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.7%, David Bronson: 6.7%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 0.9%, Matt Heilala: 0.2%, James Parkin: 0.4%, Bernadette Wilson: 23.5%, Tom Begich: 30.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.8%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.2%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.7%, Bill Walker: 4.9%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 89.2%, Democrats: 7.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 94.9%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 77.5%, Republicans: 21.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 8.2%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 89.8%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.1%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.1%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.8%, Democrats: 92.6%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.5%, Democrats: 92.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 76.5%, Democrats: 23.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 50.5%, Democrats: 47.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 93.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 65.0%, Republicans: 33.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.5%, Democrats: 94.8%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 88.5%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 84.0%, an independent: 2.9%, Republicans: 14.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.0%, Republicans: 82.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 22.7%, Republicans: 68.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 88.5%, Republicans: 10.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 50.0%, Democrats: 51.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.5%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 11.0%, Democrats: 88.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 2.1%, an independent: 4.4%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.5%, Democrats: 6.9%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 86.5%, Democrats: 13.9%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 20.0%, Democrats: 76.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
Alabama Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
Florida Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
Michigan Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
Minnesota Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
Mississippi Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
New Mexico Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
Texas Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28
2028 House winner		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 28

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-28 07:12 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 27, 2026

Republican Party plummets 14.0 points in WA-03 House — now at 8.0%

Polls Markets

Republican Party fell 14.0 points to 8.0% in the WA-03 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 42.5% Democratic and House odds at 82.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
WA-03 House	Republican Party	-14.0	8.0%
WA-03 House	Democratic Party	+12.0	89.5%
VA-01 House	Republican Party	-10.0	38.0%
FL-07 House	Republican Party	-10.0	60.5%
NC-01 House	Democratic Party	+9.0	50.0%
OH-09 House	Democratic Party	+9.0	62.0%
FL-07 House	Democratic Party	+8.5	37.0%
OH-09 House	Republican Party	-8.0	37.5%
NY-17 House	Republican Party	+6.5	26.0%
AZ-01 House	Republican Party	+6.5	26.5%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
Ohio Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 50.5%	Republicans: 50.0%	0.5 pts
Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 50.5%	Democrats: 49.5%	1.0 pts
TX-15 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 50.5%	Republican Party: 48.0%	2.5 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.5%	Democratic Party: 48.5%	3.0 pts
FL-22 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 52.0%	Republican Party: 49.0%	3.0 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 32.0%, Mary Peltola: 68.0%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 4.3%, Republicans: 95.3%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.0%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 13.9%, Democrats: 85.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.0%, Republicans: 61.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 95.0%, Democrats: 5.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.3%, Republicans: 2.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 82.5%, Democrats: 18.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 6.0%, Republicans: 94.2%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 7.5%, Republicans: 92.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 3.6%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 61.5%, Republicans: 38.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 28.0%, Democrats: 72.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 87.5%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.3%, an independent: 19.8%, Republicans: 78.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 86.5%, Republicans: 14.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.4%, an independent: 33.5%, Republicans: 63.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 83.5%, Republicans: 14.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.0%, Republicans: 4.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 2.7%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 57.0%, Republicans: 44.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 6.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 5.5%, Democrats: 94.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.5%, Republicans: 82.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.5%, Democrats: 6.6%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, Republicans: 93.8%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 42.5%, Republicans: 56.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.5%, Republicans: 95.3%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 3.8%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.3%, Shelley Hughes: 0.4%, Treg Taylor: 7.5%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.6%, Mary Peltola: 0.2%, Hank Kroll: 0.4%, Matt Claman: 0.4%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.7%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.7%, David Bronson: 6.8%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 0.9%, Matt Heilala: 0.2%, James Parkin: 0.4%, Bernadette Wilson: 23.5%, Tom Begich: 30.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.3%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.1%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.7%, Bill Walker: 4.9%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 89.2%, Democrats: 7.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 94.9%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 77.5%, Republicans: 21.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 8.8%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 89.8%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.1%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.1%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.8%, Democrats: 92.7%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.5%, Democrats: 92.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 77.0%, Democrats: 22.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 50.5%, Democrats: 49.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.2%, Democrats: 93.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 64.5%, Republicans: 36.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.5%, Democrats: 94.8%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 88.0%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 84.5%, an independent: 2.7%, Republicans: 14.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.3%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.0%, Republicans: 82.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 23.6%, Republicans: 72.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 88.5%, Republicans: 10.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 50.0%, Democrats: 50.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.5%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 10.5%, Democrats: 88.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 2.1%, an independent: 4.4%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 7.2%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 86.0%, Democrats: 13.9%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 18.5%, Democrats: 79.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
Alabama Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
Florida Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
Michigan Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
Montana Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
New Mexico Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 27

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-27 07:13 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 26, 2026

Republican Party plummets 16.0 points in NY-17 House — now at 19.5%

Polls Markets

Republican Party fell 16.0 points to 19.5% in the NY-17 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 42.5% Democratic and House odds at 81.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
NY-17 House	Republican Party	-16.0	19.5%
FL-13 House	Republican Party	+15.5	61.0%
NY-21 House	Republican Party	-11.0	68.5%
NY-21 House	Democratic Party	+9.0	29.5%
MI-04 House	Democratic Party	-7.0	37.0%
NC-01 House	Democratic Party	-6.5	41.0%
IA-03 House	Democratic Party	-6.5	63.5%
FL-27 House	Democratic Party	-6.0	27.5%
CO-03 House	Democratic Party	-5.0	27.5%
VA-01 House	Democratic Party	-4.5	42.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
Ohio Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 51.5%	Republicans: 48.0%	3.5 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 52.0%	Democratic Party: 48.0%	4.0 pts
FL-22 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 52.5%	Republican Party: 48.0%	4.5 pts
Georgia Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 53.0%	Republicans: 48.0%	5.0 pts
TX-15 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 50.5%	Republican Party: 45.5%	5.0 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 30.5%, Mary Peltola: 66.5%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 4.3%, Republicans: 95.7%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.0%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.0%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.5%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.5%, Democrats: 85.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.5%, Republicans: 60.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.5%, Democrats: 5.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.9%, Republicans: 2.2%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 82.5%, Democrats: 18.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 6.8%, Republicans: 93.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 7.5%, Republicans: 92.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 3.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 61.5%, Republicans: 38.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 28.0%, Democrats: 71.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 92.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 87.0%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.3%, an independent: 19.8%, Republicans: 78.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 86.0%, Republicans: 14.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.4%, an independent: 36.5%, Republicans: 62.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 83.5%, Republicans: 14.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.0%, Republicans: 2.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 57.0%, Republicans: 44.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.0%, Democrats: 5.9%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 5.5%, Democrats: 94.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.5%, Republicans: 82.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.8%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.9%, Republicans: 93.7%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 43.5%, Republicans: 57.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.5%, Republicans: 95.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 3.8%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.3%, Shelley Hughes: 0.4%, Treg Taylor: 7.5%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.8%, Mary Peltola: 0.2%, Hank Kroll: 0.4%, Matt Claman: 0.4%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.8%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.8%, David Bronson: 6.9%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 0.9%, Matt Heilala: 0.2%, James Parkin: 0.2%, Bernadette Wilson: 23.5%, Tom Begich: 30.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.4%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.2%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.8%, Bill Walker: 4.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 89.1%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 94.9%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 77.5%, Republicans: 21.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 8.6%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 89.8%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.1%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.1%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.8%, Democrats: 92.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.0%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 77.0%, Democrats: 22.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 48.0%, Democrats: 53.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.2%, Democrats: 93.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 61.0%, Republicans: 37.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.0%, Democrats: 94.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 88.0%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 83.5%, an independent: 2.8%, Republicans: 14.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.3%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.5%, Republicans: 82.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 23.2%, Republicans: 76.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 88.0%, Republicans: 10.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 48.0%, Democrats: 51.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.5%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 11.0%, Democrats: 88.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 7.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.0%, Republicans: 2.0%, an independent: 4.4%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 89.0%, Democrats: 9.4%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 86.0%, Democrats: 13.9%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 19.5%, Democrats: 78.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
Alabama Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
Minnesota Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
Mississippi Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
Montana Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
New Mexico Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
Ohio Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
Virginia Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26
2028 House winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 26

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-26 07:13 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 25, 2026

Republican Party plummets 24.5 points in PA-10 House — now at 26.5%

Polls Markets

Republican Party fell 24.5 points to 26.5% in the PA-10 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 42.5% Democratic and House odds at 80.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
PA-10 House	Republican Party	-24.5	26.5%
PA-17 House	Democratic Party	+23.5	86.5%
NY-19 House	Republican Party	-23.0	16.5%
NJ-05 House	Republican Party	-22.5	11.0%
VA-06 House	Republican Party	+19.5	89.5%
VA-07 House	Democratic Party	+18.5	88.0%
NY-19 House	Democratic Party	+18.0	81.0%
NY-22 House	Democratic Party	+18.0	85.0%
CO-05 House	Republican Party	+17.0	71.5%
VA-01 House	Democratic Party	-17.0	46.5%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 50.0%	Democrats: 49.0%	1.0 pts
VA-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 47.5%	Democratic Party: 46.5%	1.0 pts
NC-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 49.0%	Democratic Party: 47.5%	1.5 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.0%	Democratic Party: 49.0%	2.0 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 31.0%, Mary Peltola: 65.5%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 4.3%, Republicans: 95.2%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.0%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.0%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.9%, Democrats: 85.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.0%, Republicans: 60.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 2.1%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 82.5%, Democrats: 17.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 7.1%, Republicans: 92.8%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 7.5%, Republicans: 91.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 3.7%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 61.5%, Republicans: 38.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 28.0%, Democrats: 70.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 90.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 87.0%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.3%, an independent: 20.2%, Republicans: 78.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 85.5%, Republicans: 14.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.4%, an independent: 36.5%, Republicans: 61.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 83.0%, Republicans: 14.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.8%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 2.6%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 55.5%, Republicans: 44.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.5%, Democrats: 5.9%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 5.5%, Democrats: 93.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.5%, Republicans: 82.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.7%, Democrats: 6.8%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.9%, Republicans: 93.6%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 43.5%, Republicans: 57.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.5%, Republicans: 95.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 4.0%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.3%, Shelley Hughes: 0.4%, Treg Taylor: 7.9%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.9%, Mary Peltola: 0.2%, Hank Kroll: 0.4%, Matt Claman: 0.4%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.8%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.8%, David Bronson: 6.5%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 0.9%, Matt Heilala: 0.2%, James Parkin: 0.2%, Bernadette Wilson: 23.5%, Tom Begich: 30.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.2%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.8%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.8%, Bill Walker: 4.9%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 89.0%, Democrats: 9.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 95.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 76.5%, Republicans: 21.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 8.2%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 89.6%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.1%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.1%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.8%, Democrats: 92.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.0%, Democrats: 91.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 77.5%, Democrats: 22.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 46.5%, Democrats: 53.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.4%, Democrats: 92.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 63.0%, Republicans: 37.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.5%, Democrats: 94.9%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 88.5%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 82.5%, an independent: 3.0%, Republicans: 15.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.0%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 23.6%, Republicans: 77.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.5%, Republicans: 10.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 50.0%, Democrats: 49.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 12.0%, Democrats: 88.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 7.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 2.0%, an independent: 4.4%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 89.5%, Democrats: 9.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 85.5%, Democrats: 14.3%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 20.5%, Democrats: 79.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
Alabama Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
Iowa Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
Louisiana Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
Michigan Senate winner?		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
Minnesota Senate winner?		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
Mississippi Senate winner?		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
New Jersey Senate winner?		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
New Mexico Senate winner?		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
Texas Senate winner?		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25
2028 House winner		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 25

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-25 07:15 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 24, 2026

2 states vote: Democrats surges 0.5 points to 88.0% in New York

Polls Markets

2 states held primaries on June 23 — Maryland, New York. Senate control at 43.5% Democratic House at 80.5% Democratic.

June 23 Primary Results — State by State

Official results are being tabulated by each state’s Secretary of State. Links go to official SOS results pages. Market odds from Polymarket.

Maryland — Governor

Our model rates this Safe D (D 100.0%, R 0.0%). Key candidates: Eric Felber (D), Wes Moore (D) vs. Dan Cox (R). MD SOS results →

New York — Governor

Our model rates this Safe D (D 100.0%, R 0.0%). Polymarket: Democrats: 87.5%, Republicans: 11.5% (no significant post-primary movement). NY SOS results →

Model vs. Markets — Where We Disagree

Divergences between our polling model and Polymarket for June 23 primary states.

Race	Model	Polymarket	Gap
New York Governor	D 100.0%	D 87.5%	+12.5 pts

Gap = Model D% minus Polymarket D%. Positive = model more bullish on Democrats.

Top Movers — All Markets

Biggest day-over-day moves across all markets, not just primary states.

Race	Who	Move	Now
PA-17 House	Democratic Party	-25.5	63.0%
NJ-05 House	Republican Party	+23.0	33.5%
TX-28 House	Republican Party	-18.5	20.0%
NY-04 House	Democratic Party	+16.0	81.0%
VA-06 House	Republican Party	-16.0	70.0%
CO-05 House	Republican Party	-15.0	54.5%
NY-18 House	Democratic Party	-14.7	75.1%
TX-35 House	Republican Party	-13.5	43.5%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
MI-10 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 49.5%	Republican Party: 49.0%	0.5 pts
WI-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 56.5%	Democratic Party: 54.5%	2.0 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.5%	Democratic Party: 49.0%	2.5 pts
NY-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 58.5%	Democratic Party: 56.0%	2.5 pts
Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 50.0%	Democrats: 45.5%	4.5 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

June 23 Primary States — All Market Odds

State	Race	Odds	SOS
NY	Governor	Democrats: 87.5%, Republicans: 11.5%	NY →

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 38.0%, Mary Peltola: 62.5%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 4.3%, Republicans: 94.7%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.0%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.2%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.0%, Republicans: 60.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.7%, Republicans: 2.2%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 82.5%, Democrats: 17.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 8.0%, Republicans: 89.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 10.5%, Republicans: 90.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 61.5%, Republicans: 38.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 27.5%, Democrats: 70.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 7.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 86.5%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.6%, an independent: 21.0%, Republicans: 77.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 85.5%, Republicans: 14.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.8%, an independent: 38.5%, Republicans: 60.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 80.0%, Republicans: 14.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 2.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 55.0%, Republicans: 44.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.5%, Democrats: 7.2%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 93.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.5%, Republicans: 82.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.5%, Democrats: 7.3%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.8%, Republicans: 93.2%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 43.5%, Republicans: 57.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 7.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.5%, Republicans: 95.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 3.7%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.3%, Shelley Hughes: 0.4%, Treg Taylor: 8.0%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.9%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 0.6%, Matt Claman: 0.5%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.8%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.8%, David Bronson: 5.9%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 0.9%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.2%, Bernadette Wilson: 23.5%, Tom Begich: 30.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.3%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.8%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.9%, Bill Walker: 4.8%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 87.9%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 93.7%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 76.5%, Republicans: 21.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 10.0%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 89.5%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.1%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.1%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.1%, Democrats: 92.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.0%, Democrats: 91.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 77.5%, Democrats: 22.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 46.0%, Democrats: 54.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.3%, Democrats: 92.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 67.0%, Republicans: 33.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.5%, Democrats: 94.7%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 88.5%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 83.0%, an independent: 3.5%, Republicans: 16.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.5%, Republicans: 80.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 27.6%, Republicans: 76.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 88.0%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 50.0%, Democrats: 45.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 11.5%, Democrats: 88.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 7.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 91.5%, Republicans: 2.1%, an independent: 4.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 90.5%, Democrats: 8.8%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 82.5%, Democrats: 15.8%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 22.0%, Democrats: 79.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 24

📄 About This Post

June 23 was primary night in 2 states. Official vote counts are being tabulated — check each state’s Secretary of State page (linked above) for certified results. Market odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Model projections from our polling average. All numbers link to original sources. Generated 2026-06-24 07:13 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 23, 2026

Senate control at 42.5% Dem | House at 81.5% Dem

Polls Markets

Senate control sits at 42.5% Democratic and House odds at 81.5%.

No significant market moves today — all races shifted less than 2 points.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
PA-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.5%	Democratic Party: 49.0%	2.5 pts
AZ-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 50.5%	Democratic Party: 46.0%	4.5 pts
Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 50.5%	Democrats: 45.5%	5.0 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 38.0%, Mary Peltola: 62.5%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 4.3%, Republicans: 94.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.0%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.0%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 39.5%, Republicans: 60.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 2.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 82.5%, Democrats: 17.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 8.0%, Republicans: 89.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 10.5%, Republicans: 90.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 61.5%, Republicans: 38.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 27.5%, Democrats: 70.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 7.5%, Democrats: 92.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 86.5%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.8%, an independent: 21.1%, Republicans: 76.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 85.5%, Republicans: 15.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.8%, an independent: 37.5%, Republicans: 61.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 81.0%, Republicans: 15.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.7%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 2.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 55.5%, Republicans: 44.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.5%, Democrats: 7.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 93.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 16.5%, Republicans: 82.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.9%, Democrats: 7.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.7%, Republicans: 92.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 43.0%, Republicans: 58.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.5%, Republicans: 95.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 3.7%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.1%, Shelley Hughes: 0.4%, Treg Taylor: 7.4%, Lisa Murkowski: 1.0%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 0.8%, Matt Claman: 0.2%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.8%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.8%, David Bronson: 5.8%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 0.9%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.2%, Bernadette Wilson: 23.5%, Tom Begich: 30.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.3%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.8%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.8%, Bill Walker: 4.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 88.0%, Democrats: 9.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 93.7%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 76.0%, Republicans: 21.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 10.2%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 89.3%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.1%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.1%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.1%, Democrats: 92.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 91.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 76.5%, Democrats: 23.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 46.5%, Democrats: 54.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.2%, Democrats: 92.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 66.5%, Republicans: 34.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.5%, Democrats: 94.7%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 83.0%, an independent: 3.5%, Republicans: 16.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.5%, Republicans: 80.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 29.0%, Republicans: 78.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.5%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 50.5%, Democrats: 45.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 12.0%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 6.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 91.5%, Republicans: 2.0%, an independent: 4.9%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 90.5%, Democrats: 9.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 82.5%, Democrats: 14.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 20.0%, Democrats: 77.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
Louisiana Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
Minnesota Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
Mississippi Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
Ohio Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
Texas Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23
2028 House winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 23

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-23 07:13 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 21, 2026

Republican Party plummets 14.5 points in NY-19 House — now at 18.0%

Polls Markets

Republican Party fell 14.5 points to 18.0% in the NY-19 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 43.0% Democratic and House odds at 80.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
NY-19 House	Republican Party	-14.5	18.0%
WA-03 House	Democratic Party	+9.0	75.5%
CO-03 House	Democratic Party	+9.0	35.5%
MI-07 House	Republican Party	+8.5	24.0%
TX-35 House	Republican Party	+8.5	57.0%
FL-27 House	Democratic Party	-7.5	31.0%
TX-15 House	Republican Party	+7.5	48.0%
NC-11 House	Republican Party	-7.5	31.5%
NY-18 House	Democratic Party	+7.2	90.4%
IA-01 House	Republican Party	-7.0	21.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
IA-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.0%	Democratic Party: 50.0%	1.0 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.5%	Democratic Party: 49.0%	2.5 pts
TX-15 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 52.5%	Republican Party: 48.0%	4.5 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 38.0%, Mary Peltola: 62.0%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 4.2%, Republicans: 94.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 9.0%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.0%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.0%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.4%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.5%, Republicans: 60.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.4%, Republicans: 2.1%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 80.5%, Democrats: 18.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 8.0%, Republicans: 87.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 10.5%, Republicans: 88.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 62.5%, Republicans: 38.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 27.5%, Democrats: 70.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 7.5%, Democrats: 92.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 87.0%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.7%, an independent: 21.5%, Republicans: 76.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 85.0%, Republicans: 15.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, an independent: 37.5%, Republicans: 59.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 82.5%, Republicans: 15.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.7%, Republicans: 2.6%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 54.5%, Republicans: 44.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.5%, Democrats: 7.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 93.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 16.5%, Republicans: 83.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.1%, Democrats: 7.1%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.1%, Republicans: 91.8%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 42.5%, Republicans: 56.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 7.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.5%, Republicans: 95.2%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 3.6%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.1%, Shelley Hughes: 0.7%, Treg Taylor: 6.6%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.9%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 1.8%, Matt Claman: 0.4%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.8%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.8%, David Bronson: 5.8%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 0.9%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.2%, Bernadette Wilson: 23.5%, Tom Begich: 31.0%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.2%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.8%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.8%, Bill Walker: 3.6%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 88.3%, Democrats: 10.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 93.6%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 76.0%, Republicans: 21.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 9.7%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 88.9%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.3%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.1%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.6%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.0%, Democrats: 91.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 77.0%, Democrats: 23.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 46.0%, Democrats: 54.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.4%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 63.5%, Republicans: 38.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.0%, Democrats: 94.9%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 88.5%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 82.5%, an independent: 2.9%, Republicans: 16.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.5%, Republicans: 80.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 21.3%, Republicans: 80.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.0%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 52.0%, Democrats: 43.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 12.5%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.0%, Republicans: 7.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 91.5%, Republicans: 2.0%, an independent: 4.9%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 90.5%, Democrats: 9.1%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 85.0%, Democrats: 13.2%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 22.0%, Democrats: 77.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
Arizona Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
Michigan Senate winner?		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
Mississippi Senate winner?		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
Ohio Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21
2028 House winner		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 21

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-21 07:14 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 20, 2026

Republican Party plummets 29.0 points in NY-22 House — now at 21.5%

Polls Markets

Republican Party fell 29.0 points to 21.5% in the NY-22 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 43.0% Democratic and House odds at 80.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
NY-22 House	Republican Party	-29.0	21.5%
NY-22 House	Democratic Party	+21.0	80.0%
NY-19 House	Republican Party	+12.5	32.5%
WA-03 House	Democratic Party	-12.5	66.5%
MI-07 House	Democratic Party	-12.0	72.5%
FL-27 House	Democratic Party	+9.0	38.5%
VA-02 House	Republican Party	-7.5	14.0%
TX-15 House	Republican Party	-7.5	40.5%
OH-15 House	Republican Party	-7.0	65.5%
FL-27 House	Republican Party	-6.5	63.5%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
TX-35 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 49.0%	Republican Party: 48.5%	0.5 pts
IA-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.0%	Democratic Party: 50.0%	1.0 pts
MI-04 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.0%	Democratic Party: 49.0%	2.0 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.5%	Democratic Party: 49.0%	2.5 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 38.0%, Mary Peltola: 62.0%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.9%, Republicans: 94.2%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 9.0%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.0%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.0%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.4%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.5%, Republicans: 60.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.7%, Republicans: 2.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 81.0%, Democrats: 18.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 8.0%, Republicans: 87.4%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 10.0%, Republicans: 88.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 62.5%, Republicans: 37.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 27.5%, Democrats: 71.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 10.5%, Democrats: 90.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 87.0%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.4%, an independent: 22.1%, Republicans: 75.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 85.0%, Republicans: 15.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, an independent: 39.0%, Republicans: 59.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 82.0%, Republicans: 14.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.8%, Republicans: 2.7%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 55.0%, Republicans: 44.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.5%, Democrats: 7.6%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 93.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.0%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 14.5%, Republicans: 83.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.8%, Democrats: 7.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.0%, Republicans: 91.9%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 43.5%, Republicans: 56.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.5%, Republicans: 95.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 4.8%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.1%, Shelley Hughes: 0.7%, Treg Taylor: 6.8%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.9%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 1.9%, Matt Claman: 1.5%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.7%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.7%, David Bronson: 5.8%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 0.9%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.3%, Bernadette Wilson: 23.5%, Tom Begich: 30.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.4%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.8%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.8%, Bill Walker: 3.6%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 88.7%, Democrats: 11.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 93.6%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 77.0%, Republicans: 24.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 9.0%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 88.9%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.2%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.1%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.6%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.0%, Democrats: 91.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 77.5%, Democrats: 23.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 46.5%, Democrats: 54.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.3%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 62.5%, Republicans: 36.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.0%, Democrats: 95.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 88.5%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 82.5%, an independent: 2.9%, Republicans: 16.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 17.0%, Republicans: 79.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 22.2%, Republicans: 82.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.0%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 52.0%, Democrats: 43.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 11.5%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.0%, Republicans: 7.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 91.5%, Republicans: 2.2%, an independent: 4.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 8.8%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 81.5%, Democrats: 17.3%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 18.0%, Democrats: 77.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
Arizona Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
Iowa Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
Michigan Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
Minnesota Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
Montana Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
New Jersey Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
New Mexico Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 20

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-20 07:11 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 19, 2026

Democratic Party surges 38.5 points in PA-17 House — now at 86.5%

Polls Markets

Democratic Party jumped 38.5 points to 86.5% in the PA-17 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 43.5% Democratic and House odds at 80.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
PA-17 House	Democratic Party	+38.5	86.5%
MN-02 House	Democratic Party	+36.0	89.5%
MI-08 House	Democratic Party	+36.0	88.0%
VA-07 House	Democratic Party	+35.0	86.0%
VA-07 House	Republican Party	-34.7	12.8%
NY-19 House	Democratic Party	+33.0	77.0%
WA-03 House	Democratic Party	+29.5	79.0%
FL-13 House	Republican Party	+28.5	70.0%
NY-03 House	Republican Party	-28.0	21.0%
NY-19 House	Republican Party	-27.0	20.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
IA-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 50.5%	Democratic Party: 50.5%	0.0 pts
TX-35 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 53.5%	Republican Party: 52.0%	1.5 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.5%	Democratic Party: 49.5%	2.0 pts
TX-15 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 52.5%	Republican Party: 48.0%	4.5 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 38.5%, Mary Peltola: 61.5%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, Republicans: 94.3%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 9.0%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.0%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.5%, Democrats: 84.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.5%, Republicans: 60.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.0%, Republicans: 2.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 80.5%, Democrats: 18.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 8.0%, Republicans: 87.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 10.5%, Republicans: 88.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 62.5%, Republicans: 38.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 28.0%, Democrats: 69.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 10.5%, Democrats: 90.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 87.0%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.8%, an independent: 22.4%, Republicans: 75.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 84.5%, Republicans: 15.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, an independent: 39.0%, Republicans: 59.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 82.5%, Republicans: 14.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.7%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.7%, Republicans: 2.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 55.0%, Republicans: 44.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.5%, Democrats: 7.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 93.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.0%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.5%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.8%, Democrats: 7.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.1%, Republicans: 91.9%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 43.5%, Republicans: 56.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.7%, Republicans: 95.2%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 4.5%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.1%, Shelley Hughes: 1.1%, Treg Taylor: 6.8%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.9%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 2.1%, Matt Claman: 0.2%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.8%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.8%, David Bronson: 4.8%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 0.9%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.3%, Bernadette Wilson: 23.5%, Tom Begich: 30.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.4%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.8%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.8%, Bill Walker: 4.2%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 88.1%, Democrats: 11.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 93.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 77.0%, Republicans: 24.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 10.3%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 88.5%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.4%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.2%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.0%, Democrats: 91.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 76.5%, Democrats: 23.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 45.5%, Democrats: 54.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.2%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 62.5%, Republicans: 36.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.0%, Democrats: 94.7%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 82.5%, an independent: 2.9%, Republicans: 16.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.5%, Republicans: 79.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 22.7%, Republicans: 84.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.5%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 52.5%, Democrats: 42.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 90.5%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 12.0%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 91.5%, Republicans: 2.3%, an independent: 3.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 8.7%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 81.0%, Democrats: 17.2%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 21.5%, Democrats: 78.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
Alabama Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
Florida Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
Michigan Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
Minnesota Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
Montana Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
New Mexico Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
Ohio Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
Texas Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
Virginia Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19
2028 House winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 19

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-19 07:13 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 18, 2026

Democratic Party plummets 41.0 points in PA-17 House — now at 48.0%

Polls Markets

Democratic Party fell 41.0 points to 48.0% in the PA-17 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 43.5% Democratic and House odds at 80.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
PA-17 House	Democratic Party	-41.0	48.0%
VA-07 House	Republican Party	+35.6	47.5%
MI-08 House	Democratic Party	-34.0	52.0%
VA-07 House	Democratic Party	-33.0	51.0%
NY-19 House	Democratic Party	-32.5	44.0%
MN-02 House	Democratic Party	-32.5	53.5%
NY-03 House	Republican Party	+30.0	49.0%
FL-13 House	Republican Party	-28.5	41.5%
NY-19 House	Republican Party	+27.5	47.0%
WA-03 House	Democratic Party	-24.5	49.5%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
IA-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 50.5%	Democratic Party: 50.5%	0.0 pts
WI-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 57.0%	Republican Party: 56.5%	0.5 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 52.0%	Democratic Party: 49.5%	2.5 pts
NY-19 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 47.0%	Democratic Party: 44.0%	3.0 pts
VA-07 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 51.0%	Republican Party: 47.5%	3.5 pts
FL-13 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 41.5%	Democratic Party: 37.5%	4.0 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 38.0%, Mary Peltola: 61.5%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.5%, Republicans: 94.2%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.0%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.0%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 16.4%, Democrats: 84.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.5%, Republicans: 59.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.8%, Republicans: 2.6%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 81.0%, Democrats: 18.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 8.0%, Republicans: 87.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 10.5%, Republicans: 89.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 64.0%, Republicans: 36.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 27.5%, Democrats: 69.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 10.5%, Democrats: 90.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 87.0%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.7%, an independent: 22.7%, Republicans: 75.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 84.5%, Republicans: 15.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, an independent: 39.0%, Republicans: 59.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 83.5%, Republicans: 15.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.7%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.7%, Republicans: 2.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 55.5%, Republicans: 43.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 7.8%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 93.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.0%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.5%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.3%, Democrats: 6.8%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.2%, Republicans: 91.8%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 43.0%, Republicans: 56.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.7%, Republicans: 95.2%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 4.4%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.1%, Shelley Hughes: 0.5%, Treg Taylor: 6.8%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.9%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 2.0%, Matt Claman: 0.5%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.8%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.8%, David Bronson: 4.6%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 0.9%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.3%, Bernadette Wilson: 23.5%, Tom Begich: 30.0%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.8%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.8%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.8%, Bill Walker: 4.2%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 88.5%, Democrats: 11.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 93.6%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 77.0%, Republicans: 24.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 9.2%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 88.6%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.3%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.5%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.6%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.0%, Democrats: 91.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 77.5%, Democrats: 22.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 45.5%, Democrats: 55.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.2%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 62.5%, Republicans: 35.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.0%, Democrats: 94.9%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 83.0%, an independent: 2.9%, Republicans: 14.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.5%, Republicans: 80.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.1%, Republicans: 75.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.5%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 52.5%, Democrats: 42.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 11.5%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 7.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 91.5%, Republicans: 2.3%, an independent: 3.8%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 9.2%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 82.5%, Democrats: 17.1%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 22.0%, Democrats: 78.5%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:15 AM MDT, Jun 18

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alabama Senate winner? (2028)		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
Arizona Senate winner? (2028)		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
Florida Senate winner? (2028)		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
Michigan Senate winner?		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
Minnesota Senate winner?		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
Mississippi Senate winner?		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
Montana Senate winner?		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
New Mexico Senate winner?		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
Ohio Senate winner? (2028)		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
Texas Senate winner?		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18
2028 House winner		01:16 AM MDT, Jun 18

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-18 07:16 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 17, 2026

2 states hold runoffs: AL, GA

Polls Markets

2 states held runoffs on June 16 — Alabama, Georgia. Senate control at 42.5% Democratic House at 82.5% Democratic.

June 16 Runoff Results — State by State

Official results are being tabulated by each state’s Secretary of State. Links go to official SOS results pages. Market odds from Polymarket.

Alabama — Senate & Governor

Senate: Key candidates: Dakarai Larriett (D), Everett Wess (D) vs. Felix Moore (R), Jared Hudson (R). AL SOS results →

Governor: Our model rates this Safe R (D 5.0%, R 95.0%). Key candidates: Ken McFeeters (R). Polymarket: Republicans: 88.8%, Democrats: 11.5%. AL SOS results →

Georgia — Senate & Governor

Senate: Our model rates this Likely D (D 91.4%, R 8.6%). Key candidates: T. Ossoff (D) vs. Christina Clement (R), Derek Dooley (R). Polymarket: Republicans: 14.3%, Democrats: 85.0%. GA SOS results →

Governor: Our model rates this Likely D (D 84.3%, R 15.7%). Key candidates: Amanda Duffy (D), Derrick L Jackson (D) vs. Brad Raffensperger (R), Burt Jones (R). Polymarket: Republicans: 43.0%, Democrats: 56.5%. GA SOS results →

Model vs. Markets — Where We Disagree

Divergences between our polling model and Polymarket for June 16 runoff states.

Race	Model	Polymarket	Gap
Georgia Governor	D 84.3%	D 56.5%	+27.8 pts
Alabama Governor	D 5.0%	D 11.5%	-6.5 pts
Georgia Senate	D 91.4%	D 85.0%	+6.4 pts

Gap = Model D% minus Polymarket D%. Positive = model more bullish on Democrats.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
IA-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 50.5%	Democratic Party: 50.5%	0.0 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 50.0%	Republican Party: 47.0%	3.0 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

June 16 Runoff States — All Market Odds

State	Race	Odds	SOS
AL	Governor	Republicans: 88.8%, Democrats: 11.5%	AL →
GA	Senate	Republicans: 14.3%, Democrats: 85.0%	GA →
GA	Governor	Republicans: 43.0%, Democrats: 56.5%	GA →

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 38.5%, Mary Peltola: 61.5%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, Republicans: 94.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.0%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.0%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.0%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.3%, Democrats: 85.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.5%, Republicans: 60.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.8%, Republicans: 2.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 80.5%, Democrats: 18.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 8.1%, Republicans: 87.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 10.5%, Republicans: 88.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 64.5%, Republicans: 36.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 27.5%, Democrats: 70.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 10.5%, Democrats: 90.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 87.0%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.4%, an independent: 22.7%, Republicans: 74.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 84.0%, Republicans: 15.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, an independent: 39.0%, Republicans: 59.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 83.0%, Republicans: 15.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.7%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.7%, Republicans: 2.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 55.0%, Republicans: 44.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 8.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 93.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.0%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.5%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.8%, Democrats: 7.4%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.0%, Republicans: 92.2%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 41.5%, Republicans: 55.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.8%, Republicans: 95.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.4%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 3.6%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.1%, Shelley Hughes: 0.7%, Treg Taylor: 6.8%, Lisa Murkowski: 1.2%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 0.4%, Matt Claman: 1.4%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.8%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.8%, David Bronson: 5.3%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 0.9%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.3%, Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%, Tom Begich: 30.0%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.8%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.8%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.8%, Bill Walker: 4.2%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 88.8%, Democrats: 11.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 93.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 78.0%, Republicans: 22.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 10.3%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 88.5%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.2%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.4%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.7%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 91.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 77.5%, Democrats: 23.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 43.0%, Democrats: 56.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.4%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 62.0%, Republicans: 35.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.0%, Democrats: 95.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 83.0%, an independent: 2.9%, Republicans: 14.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.5%, Republicans: 83.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.6%, Republicans: 53.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.5%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 52.0%, Democrats: 41.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 11.5%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 91.5%, Republicans: 2.3%, an independent: 3.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 90.5%, Democrats: 9.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 79.0%, Democrats: 17.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 18.0%, Democrats: 79.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 17

📄 About This Post

June 16 was runoff night in 2 states. Official vote counts are being tabulated — check each state’s Secretary of State page (linked above) for certified results. Market odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Model projections from our polling average. All numbers link to original sources. Generated 2026-06-17 07:13 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 15, 2026

Republican Party plummets 27.5 points in NM-02 House — now at 23.5%

Polls Markets

Republican Party fell 27.5 points to 23.5% in the NM-02 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 45.5% Democratic and House odds at 82.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
NM-02 House	Republican Party	-27.5	23.5%
FL-13 House	Republican Party	-25.5	44.5%
New Hampshire Governor	Republicans	+22.5	69.0%
NY-03 House	Republican Party	-21.0	22.5%
CO-05 House	Republican Party	-20.5	49.0%
MI-08 House	Democratic Party	-19.5	66.5%
NY-19 House	Republican Party	-19.0	23.5%
AZ-02 House	Republican Party	-16.5	49.5%
VA-01 House	Republican Party	-16.5	30.5%
WA-03 House	Democratic Party	-15.5	59.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
IA-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 50.5%	Democratic Party: 50.5%	0.0 pts
FL-13 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 44.5%	Democratic Party: 44.0%	0.5 pts
PA-17 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 44.0%	Republican Party: 43.5%	0.5 pts
MI-04 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 49.5%	Republican Party: 46.0%	3.5 pts
CO-03 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 47.5%	Democratic Party: 43.0%	4.5 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 38.5%, Mary Peltola: 62.0%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.7%, Republicans: 95.3%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.0%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.0%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.0%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 13.7%, Democrats: 86.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.5%, Republicans: 60.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 2.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 80.0%, Democrats: 19.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 8.0%, Republicans: 87.4%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 11.0%, Republicans: 88.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 66.5%, Republicans: 34.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 28.0%, Democrats: 69.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 10.5%, Democrats: 90.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 87.0%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.8%, an independent: 24.6%, Republicans: 75.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 83.5%, Republicans: 15.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, an independent: 38.5%, Republicans: 58.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 82.5%, Republicans: 15.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.6%, Republicans: 2.7%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 55.5%, Republicans: 42.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 4.2%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 7.0%, Democrats: 93.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.0%, Republicans: 5.2%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.5%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.8%, Democrats: 7.4%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.0%, Republicans: 91.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 43.5%, Republicans: 53.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.6%, Republicans: 96.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 3.7%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.1%, Shelley Hughes: 0.7%, Treg Taylor: 6.7%, Lisa Murkowski: 3.4%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 0.4%, Matt Claman: 2.0%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.2%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.2%, David Bronson: 4.8%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 0.5%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.3%, Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%, Tom Begich: 30.0%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.8%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.2%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.2%, Bill Walker: 8.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 88.8%, Democrats: 11.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 93.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 78.5%, Republicans: 21.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 9.0%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 88.2%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.2%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.1%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.6%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 91.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 77.5%, Democrats: 22.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 44.5%, Democrats: 56.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.0%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 63.0%, Republicans: 36.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.0%, Democrats: 95.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 83.0%, an independent: 2.6%, Republicans: 13.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.5%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 18.4%, Republicans: 69.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.5%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 54.0%, Democrats: 47.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 11.5%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 7.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 91.5%, Republicans: 2.8%, an independent: 3.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 89.5%, Democrats: 9.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 79.0%, Democrats: 17.3%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 18.0%, Democrats: 80.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
Arizona Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
Michigan Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
Minnesota Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
Mississippi Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
New Jersey Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
Ohio Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
Texas Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15
2028 House winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 15

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-15 07:13 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 14, 2026

Republican Party surges 31.4 points in VA-07 House — now at 39.0%

Polls Markets

Republican Party jumped 31.4 points to 39.0% in the VA-07 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 44.5% Democratic and House odds at 82.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
VA-07 House	Republican Party	+31.4	39.0%
New Hampshire Governor	Republicans	-31.0	46.5%
FL-13 House	Democratic Party	+29.0	52.5%
NY-19 House	Republican Party	+28.5	42.5%
NM-02 House	Republican Party	+28.5	51.0%
VA-07 House	Democratic Party	-28.5	57.5%
NY-03 House	Republican Party	+27.5	43.5%
NY-17 House	Republican Party	+27.0	54.0%
FL-13 House	Republican Party	+21.0	70.0%
TX-28 House	Republican Party	+20.5	45.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
IA-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 50.5%	Democratic Party: 50.5%	0.0 pts
CO-03 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 38.0%	Republican Party: 37.0%	1.0 pts
PA-17 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 47.5%	Republican Party: 46.5%	1.0 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 51.5%	Republican Party: 47.0%	4.5 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 37.5%, Mary Peltola: 62.5%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 4.2%, Republicans: 95.3%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.0%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.0%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 15.0%, Democrats: 85.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 41.0%, Republicans: 60.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.0%, Republicans: 2.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 80.0%, Democrats: 19.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 8.0%, Republicans: 87.4%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 10.5%, Republicans: 88.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 66.5%, Republicans: 34.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 27.5%, Democrats: 71.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 10.5%, Democrats: 90.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 87.0%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.2%, an independent: 22.9%, Republicans: 75.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 84.5%, Republicans: 15.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, an independent: 38.5%, Republicans: 58.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 83.5%, Republicans: 14.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.7%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 2.8%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 56.5%, Republicans: 42.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 7.0%, Democrats: 93.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.0%, Republicans: 5.2%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.5%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.0%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.1%, Republicans: 92.3%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 46.0%, Republicans: 55.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.8%, Republicans: 96.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.6%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 2.5%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.1%, Shelley Hughes: 1.1%, Treg Taylor: 6.9%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.4%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 0.4%, Matt Claman: 1.1%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.2%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.2%, David Bronson: 3.9%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 0.5%, Matt Heilala: 0.5%, James Parkin: 0.3%, Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%, Tom Begich: 30.0%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.8%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.2%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.2%, Bill Walker: 6.7%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 90.8%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 93.6%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 78.5%, Republicans: 21.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 8.4%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 88.8%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.4%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.5%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 8.0%, Democrats: 91.3%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 78.5%, Democrats: 21.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 42.5%, Democrats: 58.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.0%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 62.0%, Republicans: 37.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.0%, Democrats: 95.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 83.0%, an independent: 2.6%, Republicans: 14.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.2%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.5%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.0%, Republicans: 46.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.0%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 54.0%, Democrats: 46.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 90.5%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 11.5%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 7.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 91.5%, Republicans: 2.9%, an independent: 3.8%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 89.5%, Democrats: 9.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 82.5%, Democrats: 15.6%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 18.0%, Democrats: 80.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alabama Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
Iowa Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
Louisiana Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
Michigan Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
Minnesota Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
Montana Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
New Jersey Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
New Mexico Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
Texas Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
Virginia Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 14

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-14 07:13 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 13, 2026

Democratic Party plummets 26.0 points in NY-19 House — now at 52.0%

Polls Markets

Democratic Party fell 26.0 points to 52.0% in the NY-19 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 43.5% Democratic and House odds at 82.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
NY-19 House	Democratic Party	-26.0	52.0%
OH-01 House	Democratic Party	+24.5	74.5%
MN-02 House	Democratic Party	-21.5	64.5%
Kentucky Senate	Democrats	-21.1	8.0%
FL-13 House	Republican Party	-20.5	49.0%
WA-03 House	Democratic Party	-19.0	54.5%
TX-35 House	Republican Party	+18.0	50.0%
NY-03 House	Democratic Party	-17.0	57.5%
MI-08 House	Democratic Party	-16.0	71.0%
CO-03 House	Republican Party	-13.5	49.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
IA-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 50.5%	Democratic Party: 50.5%	0.0 pts
NY-22 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 50.5%	Democratic Party: 50.0%	0.5 pts
TX-35 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 51.0%	Republican Party: 50.0%	1.0 pts
MI-04 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 50.5%	Republican Party: 49.0%	1.5 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 51.5%	Republican Party: 48.5%	3.0 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 37.5%, Mary Peltola: 62.0%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 4.2%, Republicans: 95.3%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.0%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 15.2%, Democrats: 85.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 41.0%, Republicans: 60.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.6%, Republicans: 2.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 80.5%, Democrats: 19.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 8.0%, Republicans: 87.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 10.5%, Republicans: 88.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 66.5%, Republicans: 34.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 27.5%, Democrats: 71.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 10.5%, Democrats: 90.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 87.0%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.2%, an independent: 20.3%, Republicans: 76.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 84.5%, Republicans: 15.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, an independent: 40.0%, Republicans: 58.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 83.5%, Republicans: 13.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.8%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 2.7%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 56.5%, Republicans: 42.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 7.0%, Democrats: 93.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 5.2%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.5%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.8%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.9%, Republicans: 92.6%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 45.0%, Republicans: 54.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.5%, Republicans: 96.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 5.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 2.2%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.1%, Shelley Hughes: 1.0%, Treg Taylor: 6.9%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.2%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 0.5%, Matt Claman: 0.2%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.2%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.2%, David Bronson: 5.0%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 0.5%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.3%, Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%, Tom Begich: 30.0%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.7%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.2%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.2%, Bill Walker: 2.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 93.6%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 78.5%, Republicans: 21.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 8.5%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 89.1%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.2%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.3%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.9%, Democrats: 91.3%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 92.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 78.5%, Democrats: 22.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 42.0%, Democrats: 58.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.7%, Democrats: 92.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 62.0%, Republicans: 37.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.0%, Democrats: 94.9%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 83.0%, an independent: 2.6%, Republicans: 14.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.2%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 17.0%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 21.5%, Republicans: 77.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.5%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 54.0%, Democrats: 46.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 90.5%, Democrats: 8.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 12.0%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 7.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 91.5%, Republicans: 2.5%, an independent: 3.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 89.5%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 82.5%, Democrats: 13.8%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 17.5%, Democrats: 80.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
Arizona Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
Florida Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
Mississippi Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
Montana Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
Ohio Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
Virginia Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13
2028 House winner		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 13

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-13 07:11 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 12, 2026

Democratic Party surges 33.0 points in NY-19 House — now at 78.0%

Polls Markets

Democratic Party jumped 33.0 points to 78.0% in the NY-19 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 43.5% Democratic and House odds at 82.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
NY-19 House	Democratic Party	+33.0	78.0%
MI-08 House	Democratic Party	+29.5	87.0%
MN-02 House	Democratic Party	+27.0	86.0%
PA-17 House	Republican Party	+22.5	55.0%
Kentucky Senate	Democrats	+22.0	29.1%
OH-01 House	Democratic Party	-20.0	50.0%
NY-04 House	Democratic Party	+18.0	79.0%
WA-03 House	Democratic Party	+16.5	73.5%
TX-35 House	Democratic Party	-16.5	55.5%
IA-03 House	Republican Party	-15.0	35.5%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
WI-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 56.5%	Democratic Party: 56.0%	0.5 pts
IA-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.0%	Democratic Party: 50.0%	1.0 pts
NY-22 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 53.0%	Democratic Party: 50.0%	3.0 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 51.5%	Republican Party: 48.5%	3.0 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 37.5%, Mary Peltola: 62.0%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 4.3%, Republicans: 95.4%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 91.5%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.5%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 16.3%, Democrats: 84.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 41.0%, Republicans: 60.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.1%, Republicans: 2.1%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 80.0%, Democrats: 19.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 29.1%, Republicans: 87.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 10.5%, Republicans: 88.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 66.5%, Republicans: 34.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 27.5%, Democrats: 71.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 10.5%, Democrats: 90.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 87.0%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.9%, an independent: 22.6%, Republicans: 74.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 85.0%, Republicans: 15.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, an independent: 39.0%, Republicans: 58.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 83.0%, Republicans: 12.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.7%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.4%, Republicans: 2.7%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 56.5%, Republicans: 42.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 7.0%, Democrats: 93.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 5.2%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.5%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.2%, Republicans: 92.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 42.5%, Republicans: 57.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.6%, Republicans: 96.1%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.0%, Democrats: 5.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 2.8%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.1%, Shelley Hughes: 1.0%, Treg Taylor: 8.1%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.2%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 0.5%, Matt Claman: 0.4%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.2%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.2%, David Bronson: 4.8%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 1.4%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.3%, Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%, Tom Begich: 30.0%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.8%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.2%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.2%, Bill Walker: 9.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.2%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 93.6%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 78.5%, Republicans: 21.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 8.1%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 88.3%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.1%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.1%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.8%, Democrats: 91.3%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 79.5%, Democrats: 21.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 42.0%, Democrats: 58.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.5%, Democrats: 92.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 61.5%, Republicans: 37.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.0%, Democrats: 94.9%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 83.0%, an independent: 2.6%, Republicans: 14.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.2%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 17.0%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 21.5%, Republicans: 77.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.5%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 54.0%, Democrats: 45.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 89.0%, Democrats: 8.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 13.5%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 91.5%, Republicans: 2.6%, an independent: 3.5%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 89.5%, Democrats: 7.8%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 82.5%, Democrats: 13.8%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 17.5%, Democrats: 80.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:14 AM MDT, Jun 12

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
Alabama Senate winner? (2028)		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
Iowa Senate winner? (2028)		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
Louisiana Senate winner? (2028)		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
Michigan Senate winner?		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
Minnesota Senate winner?		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
Mississippi Senate winner?		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2028)		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
New Jersey Senate winner?		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
New Mexico Senate winner?		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
Ohio Senate winner? (2028)		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
Texas Senate winner?		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
Virginia Senate winner?		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:15 AM MDT, Jun 12

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-12 07:15 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 11, 2026

Democratic Party surges 34.5 points in AZ-06 House — now at 79.5%

Polls Markets

Democratic Party jumped 34.5 points to 79.5% in the AZ-06 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 45.5% Democratic and House odds at 81.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
AZ-06 House	Democratic Party	+34.5	79.5%
NJ-05 House	Democratic Party	+33.5	86.0%
VA-07 House	Democratic Party	+28.5	87.5%
FL-13 House	Republican Party	+26.5	70.0%
AZ-02 House	Republican Party	+25.0	66.5%
MN-01 House	Republican Party	+24.0	58.5%
NY-03 House	Democratic Party	+22.0	74.0%
MI-10 House	Republican Party	-18.0	21.0%
NY-04 House	Democratic Party	-17.5	61.0%
Montana Senate	an independent	-15.2	22.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
IA-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.0%	Democratic Party: 49.5%	1.5 pts
VA-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 50.5%	Republican Party: 46.5%	4.0 pts
OH-09 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 52.0%	Republican Party: 47.5%	4.5 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 39.0%, Mary Peltola: 61.5%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.1%, Republicans: 95.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.5%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 15.7%, Democrats: 84.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.5%, Republicans: 60.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.7%, Republicans: 2.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 79.0%, Democrats: 19.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 7.1%, Republicans: 87.4%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 10.5%, Republicans: 88.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 65.5%, Republicans: 34.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 28.0%, Democrats: 70.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 10.5%, Democrats: 90.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 87.5%, Democrats: 13.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.9%, an independent: 22.0%, Republicans: 74.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 85.5%, Republicans: 15.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, an independent: 40.0%, Republicans: 57.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 81.0%, Republicans: 12.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 2.9%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 56.5%, Republicans: 43.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 7.0%, Democrats: 93.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 5.2%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 20.5%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 8.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.9%, Republicans: 92.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 42.0%, Republicans: 57.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.8%, Republicans: 96.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.0%, Democrats: 5.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 2.8%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.1%, Shelley Hughes: 1.1%, Treg Taylor: 8.1%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.2%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 1.7%, Matt Claman: 2.6%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.2%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.2%, David Bronson: 4.8%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 1.4%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.3%, Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%, Tom Begich: 30.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.7%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.2%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.2%, Bill Walker: 9.9%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.8%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 93.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 78.5%, Republicans: 21.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 8.5%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 87.7%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.1%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.1%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 8.0%, Democrats: 91.3%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 78.5%, Democrats: 22.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 43.5%, Democrats: 58.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.7%, Democrats: 92.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 61.5%, Republicans: 37.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.5%, Democrats: 94.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 82.5%, an independent: 2.7%, Republicans: 13.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 17.0%, Republicans: 80.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 21.5%, Republicans: 78.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.0%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 53.5%, Democrats: 47.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 87.5%, Democrats: 8.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 13.5%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 7.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 91.5%, Republicans: 2.4%, an independent: 4.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 90.5%, Democrats: 8.2%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 83.0%, Democrats: 8.9%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 18.0%, Democrats: 80.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
Alabama Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
Louisiana Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
Michigan Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
Minnesota Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
Montana Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
New Jersey Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
Texas Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 11

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-11 07:13 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 10, 2026

5 states vote: Democrats surges 2.5 points to 64.5% in Maine

Polls Markets

5 states held primaries on June 09 — Maine, North Dakota, Nevada, South Carolina, Virginia. Senate control at 45.5% Democratic House at 81.5% Democratic.

June 09 Primary Results — State by State

Official results are being tabulated by each state’s Secretary of State. Links go to official SOS results pages. Market odds from Polymarket.

Maine — Senate & Governor

Senate: Our model rates this Likely D (D 92.3%, R 7.7%). Key candidates: Andrea Laflamme (D), Daira Rodriguez (D) vs. Carmem Calabrese (R), Carmen Calabrese (R). Polymarket: Democrats: 62.0%, Republicans: 38.5%. Post-primary move: Democrats +2.5 pts. ME SOS results →

Governor: Key candidates: Angus King III (D), Hannah Pingree (D) vs. David Jones (R), Garrett Mason (R). Polymarket: Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 12.0% (no significant post-primary movement). ME SOS results →

North Dakota — Governor

Polymarket: a Republican: 100.0% (no significant post-primary movement). ND SOS results →

Nevada — Governor

Our model rates this Toss-up (D 42.6%, R 57.4%). Key candidates: Aaron Ford (D), Alexis Hill (D) vs. Irina Hansen (R), Joe Lombardo (R). NV SOS results →

South Carolina — Senate & Governor

Senate: Our model rates this Likely R (D 17.6%, R 82.4%). Key candidates: Annie Andrews (D), Brandon Brown (D) vs. Andre Bauer (R), Lindsey Graham (R). Polymarket: Democrats: 19.5%, Republicans: 81.0%. Post-primary move: Democrats +1.0 pts. SC SOS results →

Governor: Key candidates: Alan Wilson (R), Jacqueline Hicks DuBose (R). Polymarket: Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 7.8% (no significant post-primary movement). SC SOS results →

Virginia — Senate

Our model rates this Likely D (D 92.0%, R 8.0%). Key candidates: Gregory Eichelberger (D), Lorita Daniels (D) vs. Alex De Paula (R), Bert Mizusawa (R). Polymarket: Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0% (no significant post-primary movement). VA SOS results →

Model vs. Markets — Where We Disagree

Divergences between our polling model and Polymarket for June 09 primary states.

Race	Model	Polymarket	Gap
Maine Senate	D 92.3%	D 62.0%	+30.3 pts
South Carolina Senate	D 17.6%	D 19.5%	-1.9 pts
Virginia Senate	D 92.0%	D 92.5%	-0.5 pts

Gap = Model D% minus Polymarket D%. Positive = model more bullish on Democrats.

Top Movers — All Markets

Biggest day-over-day moves across all markets, not just primary states.

Race	Who	Move	Now
AZ-06 House	Democratic Party	-30.0	45.0%
NM-02 House	Democratic Party	+26.0	77.5%
MN-01 House	Republican Party	-24.0	34.5%
NH-02 House	Republican Party	-22.1	7.0%
WA-03 House	Democratic Party	-21.5	43.5%
IA-03 House	Republican Party	+21.0	48.0%
OH-01 House	Republican Party	+18.5	45.5%
KY-06 House	Republican Party	-16.0	49.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
PA-17 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 45.0%	Democratic Party: 44.0%	1.0 pts
NY-22 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 50.0%	Republican Party: 48.5%	1.5 pts
IA-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.0%	Democratic Party: 49.5%	1.5 pts
VA-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 49.5%	Republican Party: 46.5%	3.0 pts
Alaska Governor Election Winner	Tom Begich: 28.5%	Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%	4.0 pts
MN-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 39.0%	Republican Party: 34.5%	4.5 pts
OH-09 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 52.0%	Republican Party: 47.5%	4.5 pts
AZ-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 41.5%	Democratic Party: 36.5%	5.0 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

June 09 Primary States — All Market Odds

State	Race	Odds	SOS
ME	Senate	Democrats: 62.0%, Republicans: 38.5%	ME →
ME	Governor	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 12.0%	ME →
ND	Governor	a Republican: 100.0%	ND →
SC	Senate	Democrats: 19.5%, Republicans: 81.0%	SC →
SC	Governor	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 7.8%	SC →
VA	Senate	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	VA →

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 39.0%, Mary Peltola: 60.5%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.9%, Republicans: 95.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.0%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.0%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.4%, Democrats: 85.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 39.5%, Republicans: 61.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.1%, Republicans: 3.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 79.0%, Democrats: 19.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 8.0%, Republicans: 89.3%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 9.5%, Republicans: 90.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 64.5%, Republicans: 36.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 29.5%, Democrats: 69.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 10.5%, Democrats: 89.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 88.5%, Democrats: 11.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.3%, an independent: 37.2%, Republicans: 74.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 84.5%, Republicans: 16.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, an independent: 40.0%, Republicans: 58.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 82.0%, Republicans: 17.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.7%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 2.6%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 56.0%, Republicans: 43.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 7.0%, Democrats: 93.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 5.2%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 20.5%, Republicans: 80.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.2%, Democrats: 7.6%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, Republicans: 91.8%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 42.5%, Republicans: 58.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.7%, Republicans: 96.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.0%, Democrats: 5.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 2.8%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.1%, Shelley Hughes: 0.5%, Treg Taylor: 7.1%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.2%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 5.7%, Matt Claman: 0.2%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.2%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.2%, David Bronson: 3.4%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 1.4%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.3%, Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%, Tom Begich: 28.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.7%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.2%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.2%, Bill Walker: 4.4%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.2%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 93.6%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 78.5%, Republicans: 21.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 7.7%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 87.3%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.1%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.1%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.8%, Democrats: 91.4%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 91.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 78.5%, Democrats: 22.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 44.0%, Democrats: 56.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.7%, Democrats: 92.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 60.5%, Republicans: 37.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.5%, Democrats: 94.7%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 82.5%, an independent: 2.6%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 17.5%, Republicans: 80.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 19.5%, Republicans: 79.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.5%, Republicans: 11.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 53.5%, Democrats: 45.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 89.5%, Democrats: 8.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 13.5%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 91.5%, Republicans: 2.5%, an independent: 4.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 7.7%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 82.5%, Democrats: 16.9%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 18.0%, Democrats: 82.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 10

📄 About This Post

June 09 was primary night in 5 states. Official vote counts are being tabulated — check each state’s Secretary of State page (linked above) for certified results. Market odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Model projections from our polling average. All numbers link to original sources. Generated 2026-06-10 07:12 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 09, 2026

Democratic Party plummets 38.0 points in VA-07 House — now at 47.5%

Polls Markets

Democratic Party fell 38.0 points to 47.5% in the VA-07 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 45.5% Democratic and House odds at 81.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
VA-07 House	Democratic Party	-38.0	47.5%
NJ-05 House	Democratic Party	-28.5	56.0%
NY-19 House	Democratic Party	-27.0	51.5%
FL-13 House	Republican Party	-25.5	44.5%
TX-28 House	Republican Party	+25.0	54.0%
NH-02 House	Republican Party	+22.6	29.1%
NM-02 House	Democratic Party	-20.0	51.5%
CO-03 House	Republican Party	-19.0	43.5%
NY-03 House	Democratic Party	-18.5	55.5%
MN-02 House	Democratic Party	-17.5	70.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
IA-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.0%	Democratic Party: 49.5%	1.5 pts
PA-17 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 48.0%	Republican Party: 46.5%	1.5 pts
VA-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 49.5%	Republican Party: 46.5%	3.0 pts
Alaska Governor Election Winner	Tom Begich: 28.5%	Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%	4.0 pts
OH-09 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 51.5%	Republican Party: 47.5%	4.0 pts
NY-22 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 56.0%	Democratic Party: 51.0%	5.0 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 39.0%, Mary Peltola: 59.5%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 4.3%, Republicans: 95.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.0%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.0%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.4%, Democrats: 85.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 39.5%, Republicans: 60.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.7%, Republicans: 4.4%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 78.5%, Democrats: 19.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 9.2%, Republicans: 89.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 9.5%, Republicans: 90.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 62.0%, Republicans: 38.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 29.5%, Democrats: 69.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 10.5%, Democrats: 89.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 88.5%, Democrats: 11.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.3%, an independent: 33.0%, Republicans: 74.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 84.5%, Republicans: 16.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, an independent: 40.0%, Republicans: 58.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 83.0%, Republicans: 17.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 2.7%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 55.5%, Republicans: 43.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 7.0%, Democrats: 93.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 5.2%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.5%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.2%, Democrats: 7.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, Republicans: 92.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.5%, Republicans: 59.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.5%, Republicans: 96.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.0%, Democrats: 5.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 2.9%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.1%, Shelley Hughes: 1.1%, Treg Taylor: 7.1%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.2%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 4.2%, Matt Claman: 0.4%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.2%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.3%, David Bronson: 3.7%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 1.7%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.3%, Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%, Tom Begich: 28.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.8%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.2%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.2%, Bill Walker: 5.3%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.3%, Democrats: 7.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 93.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 77.0%, Republicans: 22.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 8.3%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 88.1%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.1%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.7%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.8%, Democrats: 91.4%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 91.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 78.5%, Democrats: 21.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 43.5%, Democrats: 57.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.5%, Democrats: 92.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 62.5%, Republicans: 38.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.5%, Democrats: 94.7%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 82.5%, an independent: 2.6%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 17.5%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 19.5%, Republicans: 79.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.5%, Republicans: 12.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 53.5%, Democrats: 45.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 89.5%, Democrats: 8.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 13.5%, Democrats: 86.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 7.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 90.5%, Republicans: 2.5%, an independent: 4.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 7.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 82.5%, Democrats: 16.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 18.0%, Democrats: 82.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
Alabama Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
Louisiana Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
Michigan Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
Minnesota Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
New Jersey Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
Texas Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
Virginia Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09
2028 House winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 09

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-09 07:13 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 08, 2026

Democratic Party surges 37.5 points in MN-02 House — now at 87.5%

Polls Markets

Democratic Party jumped 37.5 points to 87.5% in the MN-02 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 45.5% Democratic and House odds at 81.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
MN-02 House	Democratic Party	+37.5	87.5%
NY-19 House	Democratic Party	+27.5	78.5%
AZ-02 House	Republican Party	+24.5	64.5%
MI-08 House	Democratic Party	+23.5	86.5%
NH-02 House	Republican Party	-23.3	6.5%
VA-07 House	Democratic Party	+23.0	85.5%
FL-13 House	Republican Party	+23.0	70.0%
AZ-06 House	Democratic Party	+21.0	79.0%
NY-04 House	Democratic Party	+20.0	74.5%
NY-03 House	Democratic Party	+19.5	74.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
NY-22 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 49.0%	Republican Party: 49.0%	0.0 pts
VA-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 47.0%	Republican Party: 46.5%	0.5 pts
IA-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.0%	Democratic Party: 50.5%	0.5 pts
PA-17 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 47.0%	Republican Party: 45.5%	1.5 pts
TX-15 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 52.5%	Republican Party: 49.5%	3.0 pts
Alaska Governor Election Winner	Tom Begich: 28.5%	Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%	4.0 pts
TX-35 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 44.5%	Republican Party: 40.5%	4.0 pts
OH-09 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 51.5%	Republican Party: 47.5%	4.0 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 41.5%, Mary Peltola: 59.0%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 4.3%, Republicans: 95.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.0%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.5%, Republicans: 80.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.4%, Democrats: 85.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.0%, Republicans: 61.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.2%, Republicans: 4.2%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 77.0%, Democrats: 19.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 10.2%, Republicans: 89.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 9.5%, Republicans: 91.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 61.5%, Republicans: 37.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 30.5%, Democrats: 68.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 10.5%, Democrats: 89.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 88.5%, Democrats: 11.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.8%, an independent: 20.6%, Republicans: 74.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 85.0%, Republicans: 16.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, an independent: 40.0%, Republicans: 59.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 80.5%, Republicans: 16.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.7%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 2.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 55.5%, Republicans: 43.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.5%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 7.0%, Democrats: 93.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 5.2%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.0%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.3%, Democrats: 7.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, Republicans: 92.3%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.5%, Republicans: 59.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.1%, Republicans: 96.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.0%, Democrats: 4.3%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 3.2%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.1%, Shelley Hughes: 1.1%, Treg Taylor: 6.5%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.2%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 4.3%, Matt Claman: 2.8%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.3%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.3%, David Bronson: 4.0%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 3.5%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.3%, Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%, Tom Begich: 28.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.6%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.2%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.2%, Bill Walker: 5.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.3%, Democrats: 7.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 94.2%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 76.0%, Republicans: 22.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 10.0%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 88.1%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.2%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 0.4%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.6%, Democrats: 91.3%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 92.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 80.5%, Democrats: 20.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 44.5%, Democrats: 57.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.9%, Democrats: 92.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 62.5%, Republicans: 37.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.0%, Democrats: 94.8%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 82.5%, an independent: 2.6%, Republicans: 12.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 5.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 15.5%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 21.0%, Republicans: 77.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.5%, Republicans: 12.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 53.0%, Democrats: 45.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 89.0%, Democrats: 9.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 13.5%, Democrats: 86.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 90.5%, Republicans: 2.5%, an independent: 4.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 7.3%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 81.5%, Democrats: 14.6%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 18.0%, Democrats: 80.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Alabama Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Arizona Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Florida Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Louisiana Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Michigan Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Mississippi Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Montana Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
New Jersey Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
New Mexico Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Ohio Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
Texas Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 08

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-08 07:11 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 07, 2026

Democratic Party plummets 37.5 points in MN-02 House — now at 50.0%

Polls Markets

Democratic Party fell 37.5 points to 50.0% in the MN-02 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 45.5% Democratic and House odds at 81.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
MN-02 House	Democratic Party	-37.5	50.0%
NY-03 House	Republican Party	-31.0	14.5%
NY-19 House	Democratic Party	-27.5	51.0%
FL-13 House	Republican Party	-25.5	47.0%
AZ-02 House	Republican Party	-24.5	40.0%
MI-08 House	Democratic Party	-23.5	63.0%
NY-04 House	Democratic Party	-23.0	54.5%
VA-07 House	Democratic Party	-22.0	62.5%
TX-28 House	Republican Party	+20.5	47.5%
AZ-06 House	Democratic Party	-19.5	58.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
AZ-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 40.0%	Democratic Party: 38.5%	1.5 pts
NC-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 53.5%	Republican Party: 50.0%	3.5 pts
NY-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 48.5%	Democratic Party: 45.0%	3.5 pts
OH-09 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 51.5%	Republican Party: 47.5%	4.0 pts
PA-17 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 43.5%	Republican Party: 39.0%	4.5 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 41.5%, Mary Peltola: 59.0%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.5%, Republicans: 95.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.5%, Republicans: 80.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.4%, Democrats: 85.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.0%, Republicans: 61.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.0%, Republicans: 5.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 77.0%, Democrats: 19.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 11.4%, Republicans: 89.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 9.5%, Republicans: 91.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 60.5%, Republicans: 39.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 29.5%, Democrats: 69.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 10.5%, Democrats: 89.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 88.5%, Democrats: 11.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.9%, an independent: 20.6%, Republicans: 74.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 86.0%, Republicans: 15.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.8%, an independent: 40.5%, Republicans: 58.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 80.5%, Republicans: 15.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.3%, Republicans: 2.6%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 55.5%, Republicans: 44.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.6%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 7.0%, Democrats: 93.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 5.2%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.0%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.4%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, Republicans: 92.8%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.5%, Republicans: 59.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.2%, Republicans: 96.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.0%, Democrats: 4.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 4.8%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.1%, Shelley Hughes: 1.1%, Treg Taylor: 6.6%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.2%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 4.4%, Matt Claman: 3.4%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.3%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.3%, David Bronson: 4.0%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 3.1%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.3%, Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%, Tom Begich: 30.0%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.6%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.2%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.2%, Bill Walker: 4.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.1%, Democrats: 7.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 94.2%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 76.0%, Republicans: 22.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 10.2%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 83.6%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.2%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 2.5%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.6%, Democrats: 91.3%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 92.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 80.0%, Democrats: 20.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 43.5%, Democrats: 57.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.9%, Democrats: 92.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 62.5%, Republicans: 36.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.0%, Democrats: 95.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 82.5%, an independent: 2.6%, Republicans: 12.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.0%, Republicans: 4.9%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 15.5%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.5%, Republicans: 79.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.5%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 53.0%, Democrats: 44.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 88.5%, Democrats: 8.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 13.5%, Democrats: 86.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.0%, Republicans: 7.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 90.5%, Republicans: 3.8%, an independent: 4.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 7.3%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 81.0%, Democrats: 12.4%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 18.0%, Democrats: 80.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 07

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alabama Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
Arizona Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
Florida Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
Iowa Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
Louisiana Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
Michigan Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
Minnesota Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
Mississippi Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
New Mexico Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
Ohio Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
Virginia Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 07

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-07 07:12 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 06, 2026

Democratic Party surges 37.0 points in MN-02 House — now at 87.5%

Polls Markets

Democratic Party jumped 37.0 points to 87.5% in the MN-02 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 45.5% Democratic and House odds at 81.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
MN-02 House	Democratic Party	+37.0	87.5%
MI-08 House	Democratic Party	+34.5	86.5%
NY-19 House	Democratic Party	+32.0	78.5%
NJ-05 House	Republican Party	-30.0	16.5%
VA-07 House	Republican Party	-29.4	12.0%
NY-19 House	Republican Party	-28.5	19.0%
NJ-05 House	Democratic Party	+27.5	84.0%
VA-07 House	Democratic Party	+25.5	84.5%
IA-01 House	Republican Party	-23.0	30.5%
PA-10 House	Republican Party	-22.0	33.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
NY-22 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 51.5%	Republican Party: 50.5%	1.0 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 53.0%	Republican Party: 51.5%	1.5 pts
IA-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.0%	Democratic Party: 48.5%	2.5 pts
VA-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 50.0%	Republican Party: 46.5%	3.5 pts
OH-09 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 51.5%	Republican Party: 47.5%	4.0 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 41.5%, Mary Peltola: 59.0%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.4%, Republicans: 95.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 5.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.0%, Republicans: 80.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.4%, Democrats: 85.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.0%, Republicans: 61.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 91.3%, Republicans: 5.6%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 77.0%, Democrats: 19.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 11.1%, Republicans: 87.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 9.5%, Republicans: 91.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 58.5%, Republicans: 40.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 32.5%, Democrats: 66.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 10.5%, Democrats: 90.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 88.5%, Democrats: 11.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.8%, an independent: 20.6%, Republicans: 74.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 85.5%, Republicans: 14.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.9%, an independent: 40.5%, Republicans: 58.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 80.5%, Republicans: 15.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.7%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.3%, Republicans: 2.7%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 55.5%, Republicans: 44.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.6%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 7.0%, Democrats: 93.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 5.2%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 19.0%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 93.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.5%, Republicans: 91.8%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.5%, Republicans: 59.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.1%, Republicans: 96.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.0%, Democrats: 4.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 3.1%, Adam Crum: 0.4%, Edna DeVries: 0.2%, Shelley Hughes: 1.1%, Treg Taylor: 5.8%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.4%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 6.7%, Matt Claman: 2.5%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.8%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.7%, David Bronson: 3.8%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 3.2%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.3%, Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%, Tom Begich: 30.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.6%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.2%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.5%, Bill Walker: 5.2%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.2%, Democrats: 7.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 94.3%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 76.0%, Republicans: 22.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 8.6%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 84.8%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.1%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 4.2%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 92.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 80.0%, Democrats: 20.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 44.0%, Democrats: 57.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.9%, Democrats: 92.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 60.0%, Republicans: 36.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 5.0%, Democrats: 95.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 83.5%, an independent: 2.5%, Republicans: 13.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.9%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 15.5%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.0%, Republicans: 78.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.5%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 53.0%, Democrats: 45.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 89.0%, Democrats: 8.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 13.5%, Democrats: 86.5%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.0%, Republicans: 7.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 90.5%, Republicans: 4.4%, an independent: 4.2%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 7.4%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 83.5%, Democrats: 11.7%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 18.0%, Democrats: 80.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
Arizona Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
Florida Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
Louisiana Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
Mississippi Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
Montana Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
New Mexico Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
Ohio Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
Virginia Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06
2028 House winner		01:12 AM MDT, Jun 06

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-06 07:12 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 05, 2026

Democratic Party plummets 32.5 points in MI-08 House — now at 52.0%

Polls Markets

Democratic Party fell 32.5 points to 52.0% in the MI-08 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 45.5% Democratic and House odds at 81.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
MI-08 House	Democratic Party	-32.5	52.0%
NY-19 House	Republican Party	+26.5	47.5%
MN-02 House	Democratic Party	-23.5	50.5%
NH-02 House	Republican Party	+22.3	37.9%
NJ-05 House	Republican Party	+19.5	46.5%
AZ-02 House	Republican Party	+15.0	65.5%
MI-07 House	Republican Party	+14.5	37.0%
VA-02 House	Democratic Party	+14.5	70.0%
IA-03 House	Democratic Party	+13.0	69.0%
NY-17 House	Republican Party	+12.5	55.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
VA-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 47.0%	Republican Party: 46.5%	0.5 pts
MI-04 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 43.5%	Democratic Party: 43.0%	0.5 pts
NY-19 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 47.5%	Democratic Party: 46.5%	1.0 pts
NY-22 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 52.5%	Republican Party: 50.5%	2.0 pts
PA-17 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 44.5%	Democratic Party: 42.5%	2.0 pts
IA-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.0%	Democratic Party: 48.5%	2.5 pts
OH-09 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 51.5%	Republican Party: 47.5%	4.0 pts
CO-03 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 44.5%	Republican Party: 40.5%	4.0 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 41.5%, Mary Peltola: 59.0%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.9%, Republicans: 95.8%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.0%, Republicans: 80.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.4%, Democrats: 85.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.0%, Republicans: 61.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.8%, Republicans: 5.7%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 77.0%, Democrats: 19.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.5%, Republicans: 89.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 9.5%, Republicans: 91.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 53.0%, Republicans: 47.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 34.0%, Democrats: 66.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 11.5%, Democrats: 89.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 88.5%, Democrats: 10.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.7%, an independent: 20.6%, Republicans: 74.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 84.5%, Republicans: 15.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.9%, an independent: 39.5%, Republicans: 59.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 81.0%, Republicans: 15.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.7%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 2.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 55.5%, Republicans: 45.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.8%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 7.0%, Democrats: 93.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 5.2%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.0%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 89.8%, Democrats: 11.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.5%, Republicans: 92.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.5%, Republicans: 60.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.0%, Republicans: 96.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 3.1%, Adam Crum: 0.5%, Edna DeVries: 0.2%, Shelley Hughes: 0.2%, Treg Taylor: 6.3%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.3%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 4.2%, Matt Claman: 2.8%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.8%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.5%, David Bronson: 3.9%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 2.9%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.4%, Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%, Tom Begich: 29.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.6%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.2%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.6%, Bill Walker: 4.4%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.3%, Democrats: 6.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 94.2%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 76.0%, Republicans: 22.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 5.1%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 72.2%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.4%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 21.1%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 7.4%, Democrats: 92.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.0%, Democrats: 93.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 80.0%, Democrats: 20.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 46.0%, Democrats: 56.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.2%, Democrats: 92.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 60.0%, Republicans: 40.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.5%, Democrats: 95.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 83.0%, an independent: 2.5%, Republicans: 13.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.1%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 14.0%, Republicans: 81.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 18.0%, Republicans: 79.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 87.5%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 53.5%, Democrats: 45.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 87.5%, Democrats: 8.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 13.5%, Democrats: 87.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.0%, Republicans: 7.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 88.5%, Republicans: 1.9%, an independent: 3.2%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.0%, Democrats: 7.8%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 85.5%, Democrats: 8.9%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 18.5%, Democrats: 79.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
Alabama Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
Louisiana Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
Michigan Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
Mississippi Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
Montana Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
Nebraska Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
New Mexico Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
Texas Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
Virginia Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05
2028 House winner		01:11 AM MDT, Jun 05

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-05 07:11 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 04, 2026

Democratic Party plummets 31.0 points in VA-07 House — now at 57.5%

Polls Markets

Democratic Party fell 31.0 points to 57.5% in the VA-07 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 46.5% Democratic and House odds at 81.5%.

Top Movers

Race	Who	Move	Now
VA-07 House	Democratic Party	-31.0	57.5%
VA-07 House	Republican Party	+22.4	32.6%
NY-19 House	Democratic Party	-21.5	56.5%
NJ-05 House	Democratic Party	-21.0	63.0%
IA-01 House	Republican Party	+18.5	53.0%
MI-10 House	Democratic Party	-18.5	50.0%
NH-02 House	Republican Party	-17.0	15.6%
FL-13 House	Democratic Party	+17.0	43.5%
MI-04 House	Republican Party	-16.0	43.0%
CO-05 House	Republican Party	-15.5	52.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
CO-03 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 48.5%	Republican Party: 48.0%	0.5 pts
NC-01 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 46.5%	Democratic Party: 45.5%	1.0 pts
NY-03 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 55.0%	Republican Party: 52.5%	2.5 pts
NY-22 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 53.5%	Republican Party: 50.5%	3.0 pts
MI-04 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 46.5%	Republican Party: 43.0%	3.5 pts
OH-09 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 51.5%	Republican Party: 47.5%	4.0 pts
Alaska Governor Election Winner	Tom Begich: 29.5%	Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%	5.0 pts
NY-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 55.0%	Republican Party: 50.0%	5.0 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 40.5%, Mary Peltola: 59.5%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.6%, Republicans: 96.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.5%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 6.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 17.0%, Republicans: 82.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.4%, Democrats: 85.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.0%, Republicans: 61.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.7%, Republicans: 5.7%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 81.5%, Democrats: 18.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.5%, Republicans: 88.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 9.5%, Republicans: 91.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 56.5%, Republicans: 43.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 30.5%, Democrats: 66.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 11.0%, Democrats: 89.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 88.5%, Democrats: 12.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.2%, an independent: 17.5%, Republicans: 79.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 85.0%, Republicans: 16.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.9%, an independent: 38.0%, Republicans: 60.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 81.0%, Republicans: 14.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.7%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 2.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 54.5%, Republicans: 45.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.0%, Democrats: 6.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 7.0%, Democrats: 93.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 5.2%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.0%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 95.0%, Democrats: 4.2%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.5%, Republicans: 92.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 40.5%, Republicans: 60.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.0%, Republicans: 96.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 3.0%, Adam Crum: 0.5%, Edna DeVries: 0.2%, Shelley Hughes: 0.2%, Treg Taylor: 6.2%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.2%, Mary Peltola: 0.3%, Hank Kroll: 3.5%, Matt Claman: 2.5%, Gregg Brelsford: 0.8%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.5%, David Bronson: 4.2%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 1.2%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.4%, Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%, Tom Begich: 29.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.5%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 0.2%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.6%, Bill Walker: 4.3%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.7%, Democrats: 10.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.3%, Republicans: 94.2%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 76.0%, Republicans: 22.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.1%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 6.8%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.1%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 73.7%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.1%, Chad Bianco: 0.1%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 15.2%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 9.0%, Democrats: 91.2%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 92.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 81.0%, Democrats: 19.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 44.5%, Democrats: 56.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.2%, Democrats: 91.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 60.5%, Republicans: 39.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.5%, Democrats: 95.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 88.5%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 83.0%, an independent: 2.0%, Republicans: 12.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 3.9%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 16.5%, Republicans: 76.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 15.5%, Republicans: 81.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 86.5%, Republicans: 12.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 54.0%, Democrats: 43.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 88.5%, Democrats: 8.5%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 14.0%, Democrats: 87.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.0%, Republicans: 7.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 2.1%, an independent: 3.2%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.0%, Democrats: 7.8%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 82.0%, Democrats: 9.6%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 20.5%, Democrats: 78.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
Florida Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
Minnesota Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
Montana Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
New Jersey Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
Ohio Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
Texas Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
Virginia Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04
West Virginia Senate winner?		01:13 AM MDT, Jun 04

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-04 07:13 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 03, 2026

Seven states vote: Becerra dominates California, Iowa shapes up as marquee battleground

Polls Markets

Seven states held primaries yesterday — the biggest primary night of the 2026 cycle. California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota all went to the polls on June 2. The headline: Xavier Becerra (D) surged +7.4 points to 81.2% on Polymarket in the California governor’s race, consolidating as the clear Democratic frontrunner. Iowa emerges as the most competitive battleground, with our model rating the Senate race a toss-up and the governor’s race Likely D. Senate control sits at 46.5% Democratic; House odds at 81.5% Democratic.

June 2 Primary Results — State by State

Official results are still being tabulated by each state’s Secretary of State. Links below go to official SOS results pages. Market odds reflect post-primary movement.

California — Governor (Top-Two Primary)

The marquee race of the night. With Governor Newsom term-limited, 61 candidates filed for the open seat. Polymarket surged Xavier Becerra (D) from 73.8% to 81.2% overnight — a +7.4 point jump, the biggest primary-night move. Tom Steyer (D) dropped from 15.4% to 10.8%. Steve Hilton (R) held steady at 6.7%. Under California’s top-two system, the top two vote-getters regardless of party advance to November. Our model had no active projection for this race (all polls had expired before election day). CA SOS results →

Iowa — Senate & Governor

Senate: The most competitive race on the board. Our model rates Iowa Senate a toss-up (D 43.8%, R 56.2%) based on 5 polls. Polymarket shifted slightly toward Democrats overnight: D 39.0% (+1.0), R 61.5% (-1.0). Key Democratic contenders include Zach Wahls (D) and Joshua Turek (D); the Republican field includes multiple candidates vying to succeed Joni Ernst (R). IA SOS results →

Governor: Our model rates this Likely D (D 93.9%, R 6.1%). Rob Sand (D) is the Democratic frontrunner. Notably, Polymarket moved against Democrats here: D dropped 4.0 points to 59.5%, while R surged to 41.0% (+6.0). A gap between our model (93.9% D) and Polymarket (59.5% D) — one to watch as results finalize.

Mississippi — Senate

Our model rates this Lean R (D 30.9%, R 69.1%) based on 3 polls. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is the incumbent. Scott Colom (D) is the leading Democratic challenger. Polymarket unchanged: R 88.0%, D 12.0%. Our model is notably more bullish on Democrats here than markets — 30.9% vs 12.0%. MS SOS results →

Montana — Senate

Steve Daines (R) is the heavy incumbent favorite. Our model: Likely R (D 5.5%, R 94.5%). Reilly Neill (D) is the leading Democratic challenger; Seth Bodnar (I) adds an independent factor. Polymarket: R 80.0%, I 16.5%, D 1.2%. No post-primary movement. MT SOS results →

New Jersey — Senate & Governor

Senate: Cory Booker (D) is the incumbent. No serious Republican challenge — Polymarket has D at 94.5%. No model projection (no polling data). Governor: Mikie Sherrill (D) is the leading declared candidate for the open seat. No Polymarket governor market tracked. Low-drama primaries in a blue state. NJ SOS results →

New Mexico — Senate & Governor

Senate: Ben Lujan (D) and Matt Dodson (D) on the Democratic side; no Republican filed. Polymarket: D 95.4%. Governor: Deb Haaland (D) and Duke Rodriguez (R) lead their respective primaries. No model projection (no polling). NM SOS results →

South Dakota — Senate & Governor

Senate: Mike Rounds (R) is the incumbent. Our model: Safe R (R 99.8%). Polymarket: R 95.8%. Governor: Competitive Republican primary between Dusty Johnson (R), Jon Hansen (R), Larry Rhoden (R), and Toby Doeden (R). Daniel Ahlers (D) is the lone Democratic candidate. No polling or market data for the governor’s race. SD SOS results →

Model vs. Markets — Where We Disagree

The biggest divergences between our polling model and prediction markets for last night’s primary states.

Race	Model	Polymarket	Gap
Iowa Governor	D 93.9%	D 59.5%	+34.4 pts
Mississippi Senate	D 30.9%	D 12.0%	+18.9 pts
Iowa Senate	D 43.8%	D 39.0%	+4.8 pts
Montana Senate	D 5.5%	D 1.2%	+4.3 pts
South Dakota Senate	D 0.2%	D 7.4%	-7.2 pts

Gap = Model D% minus Polymarket D%. Positive = model is more bullish on Democrats.

Top Movers — All Markets

Biggest day-over-day moves across all Polymarket election markets, not just primary states.

Race	Who	Move	Now
NY-19 House	Democratic Party	+21.5	78.0%
TX-28 House	Republican Party	-19.5	30.5%
NM-02 House	Democratic Party	+17.5	73.0%
MI-04 House	Republican Party	+16.0	59.0%
PA-01 House	Republican Party	+15.5	50.0%
WI-03 House	Democratic Party	+15.0	69.5%
CA Governor	Xavier Becerra (D)	+7.4	81.2%
IA Governor	Republicans	+6.0	41.0%

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown. Top 8 displayed.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
PA-01 House	Republican Party: 50.0%	Democratic Party: 49.5%	0.5 pts
Ohio Senate	Democrats: 50.5%	Republicans: 49.0%	1.5 pts
TX-15 House	Democratic Party: 51.0%	Republican Party: 49.5%	1.5 pts
TX-35 House	Democratic Party: 45.0%	Republican Party: 41.0%	4.0 pts
VA-01 House	Democratic Party: 51.5%	Republican Party: 47.0%	4.5 pts
IA-02 House	Republican Party: 51.0%	Democratic Party: 46.5%	4.5 pts
Alaska Governor	Tom Begich: 29.5%	Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%	5.0 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

June 2 Primary States — All Market Odds

State	Race	Odds	SOS
CA	Governor	Xavier Becerra (D): 81.2%, Tom Steyer (D): 10.8%, Steve Hilton (R): 6.7%	CA →
IA	Senate	Republicans: 61.5%, Democrats: 39.0%	IA →
IA	Governor	Democrats: 59.5%, Republicans: 41.0%	IA →
MS	Senate	Republicans: 88.0%, Democrats: 12.0%	MS →
MT	Senate	Republicans: 80.0%, Independent: 16.5%, Democrats: 1.2%	MT →
NJ	Senate	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.7%	NJ →
NM	Senate	Democrats: 95.4%, Republicans: 3.5%	NM →
SD	Senate	Republicans: 95.8%, Democrats: 7.4%	SD →

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate	Mary Peltola: 59.5%, Dan Sullivan: 40.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
CO	Colorado Senate	Democrats: 91.5%, Republicans: 8.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
FL	Florida Senate	Republicans: 82.0%, Democrats: 17.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
GA	Georgia Senate	Democrats: 85.0%, Republicans: 14.3%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
IA	Iowa Senate	Republicans: 61.5%, Democrats: 39.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
ME	Maine Senate	Democrats: 63.5%, Republicans: 35.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
MI	Michigan Senate	Democrats: 66.5%, Republicans: 31.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
MS	Mississippi Senate	Republicans: 88.0%, Democrats: 12.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
MT	Montana Senate	Republicans: 80.0%, Independent: 16.5%, Democrats: 1.2%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
NC	North Carolina Senate	Democrats: 85.5%, Republicans: 15.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
NJ	New Jersey Senate	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.7%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
NM	New Mexico Senate	Democrats: 95.4%, Republicans: 3.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
OH	Ohio Senate	Democrats: 50.5%, Republicans: 49.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
SD	South Dakota Senate	Republicans: 95.8%, Democrats: 7.4%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
TX	Texas Senate	Republicans: 60.5%, Democrats: 40.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
VA	Virginia Senate	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor	Tom Begich: 29.5%, Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.6%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
CA	California Governor	Xavier Becerra (D): 81.2%, Tom Steyer (D): 10.8%, Steve Hilton (R): 6.7%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
GA	Georgia Governor	Democrats: 54.5%, Republicans: 44.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
IA	Iowa Governor	Democrats: 59.5%, Republicans: 41.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
OH	Ohio Governor	Republicans: 53.0%, Democrats: 41.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
PA	Pennsylvania Governor	Democrats: 92.0%, Republicans: 7.0%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03
WI	Wisconsin Governor	Democrats: 78.5%, Republicans: 20.5%	01:11 AM MDT, Jun 03

📄 About This Post

June 2 was primary night in seven states. Official vote counts are being tabulated — check each state’s Secretary of State page (linked above) for certified results. Market odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Model projections from our polling average. All numbers link to original sources. Updated 2026-06-03.

View the full forecast →

June 02, 2026

Senate control at 46.5% Dem | House at 81.5% Dem

Polls Markets

Senate control sits at 46.5% Democratic and House odds at 81.5%.

No significant market moves today — all races shifted less than 2 points.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Leader	Trailer	Margin
WI-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 48.5%	Republican Party: 48.0%	0.5 pts
Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 50.0%	Republicans: 49.0%	1.0 pts
PA-17 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 45.0%	Democratic Party: 43.0%	2.0 pts
NY-17 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 50.5%	Democratic Party: 47.0%	3.5 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	Democratic Party: 38.0%	Republican Party: 34.5%	3.5 pts
IA-02 House Election Winner	Republican Party: 51.0%	Democratic Party: 46.5%	4.5 pts
Alaska Governor Election Winner	Tom Begich: 29.5%	Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%	5.0 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	Dustin Darden: 0.1%, Ann Diener: 0.1%, Dan Sullivan: 39.5%, Mary Peltola: 59.5%, Richard Grayson: 0.1%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.3%, Republicans: 96.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 8.0%, Democrats: 91.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 6.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 17.5%, Republicans: 83.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 14.8%, Democrats: 85.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 38.0%, Republicans: 62.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 87.0%, Democrats: 6.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.8%, Republicans: 4.3%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 81.0%, Democrats: 17.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.5%, Republicans: 95.1%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 9.5%, Republicans: 89.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 62.0%, Republicans: 36.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 27.5%, Democrats: 72.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 11.0%, Democrats: 89.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 88.0%, Democrats: 12.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 1.2%, an independent: 16.5%, Republicans: 80.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 85.5%, Republicans: 15.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 4.5%, an independent: 36.5%, Republicans: 60.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 75.0%, Republicans: 16.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 94.5%, Republicans: 4.6%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 95.8%, Republicans: 3.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 50.0%, Republicans: 49.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 92.5%, Democrats: 6.8%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 7.0%, Democrats: 94.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 5.2%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 18.5%, Republicans: 80.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 95.9%, Democrats: 3.6%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 2.8%, Republicans: 96.2%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 39.5%, Republicans: 60.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	Person K: 0.0%, Ken Paxton (R): 100.0%, Person L: 0.0%, John Cornyn (R): 0.0%, Dawn Buckingham: 0.0%, Person M: 0.0%, Beth Van Duyne: 0.0%, Person O: 0.0%, Wesley Hunt: 0.0%, Person B: 0.0%, Person C: 0.0%, Person D: 0.0%, Person E: 0.0%, Person N: 0.0%, Person F: 0.0%, Person G: 0.0%, Person H: 0.0%, Person I: 0.0%, Person J: 0.0%, another candidate: 0.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 6.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrats: 3.1%, Republicans: 96.9%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republicans: 94.5%, Democrats: 6.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	Click Bishop: 5.7%, Adam Crum: 0.5%, Edna DeVries: 0.3%, Shelley Hughes: 0.2%, Treg Taylor: 5.7%, Lisa Murkowski: 0.3%, Mary Peltola: 0.4%, Hank Kroll: 0.5%, Matt Claman: 3.2%, Gregg Brelsford: 1.9%, Destry J. Payne Sr.: 0.4%, David Bronson: 5.0%, Nancy Dahlstrom: 2.9%, Matt Heilala: 0.4%, James Parkin: 0.4%, Bernadette Wilson: 24.5%, Tom Begich: 29.5%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 15.8%, Bruce Walden: 0.1%, Lesil McGuire: 2.9%, Jessica Faircloth: 0.5%, Bill Walker: 3.4%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 92.8%, Democrats: 7.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 5.0%, Republicans: 93.8%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 75.5%, Republicans: 21.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
CA	California Governor Election Winner	Rick Caruso: 0.2%, Katie Porter: 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R): 6.9%, Stephen Cloobeck: 0.1%, Betty Yee: 0.1%, Kyle Langford: 0.1%, Eleni Kounalakis: 0.1%, Tony Thurmond: 0.2%, Leo Zacky: 0.1%, Eric Swalwell: 0.1%, Kamala Harris: 0.1%, Elaine Culotti: 0.1%, Alex Padilla (D): 0.1%, Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.1%, Xavier Becerra (D): 73.8%, Butch Ware: 0.1%, Toni Atkins: 0.2%, Chad Bianco: 2.5%, Daniel Mercuri: 0.1%, Michael Younger: 0.1%, Nicole Shanahan: 0.1%, Tom Steyer (D): 15.4%, Matt Mahan: 0.1%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 9.0%, Democrats: 91.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.5%, Democrats: 92.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 79.5%, Democrats: 20.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 45.0%, Democrats: 54.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 6.0%, Democrats: 92.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 63.5%, Republicans: 35.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 4.5%, Democrats: 95.3%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 88.5%, Republicans: 12.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 82.5%, an independent: 2.0%, Republicans: 15.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 4.2%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	a Republican: 100.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 13.0%, Republicans: 81.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 15.5%, Republicans: 76.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 86.5%, Republicans: 12.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 53.5%, Democrats: 43.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 88.5%, Democrats: 8.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 13.5%, Democrats: 87.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 92.5%, Republicans: 7.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	Democrats: 89.0%, Republicans: 2.1%, an independent: 3.2%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 91.5%, Democrats: 7.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Democrat: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 83.0%, Democrats: 8.8%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 100.0%, a Republican: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republicans: 18.0%, Democrats: 79.5%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	a Democrat: 0.0%, a candidate from another party: 0.0%, a Republican: 100.0%	02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02

Kalshi Markets

Market	Odds	Captured
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
Alabama Senate winner? (2028)		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
Iowa Senate winner? (2028)		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
Louisiana Senate winner? (2028)		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
Michigan Senate winner?		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
Mississippi Senate winner?		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
Montana Senate winner?		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2028)		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
New Jersey Senate winner?		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
New Mexico Senate winner?		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
Texas Senate winner?		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
Virginia Senate winner?		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02
West Virginia Senate winner?		02:04 PM MDT, Jun 02

📄 About This Post

Automated daily roundup comparing official Secretary of State data with prediction market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to their original source. Generated 2026-06-02 21:20 UTC.

View the full forecast →

June 01, 2026

Eve of Super Tuesday: 162 races shift as markets reprice ahead of 7-state primary

Polls Markets

Markets are moving. With seven states voting tomorrow, 162 Polymarket races repriced overnight — the biggest single-day shift since tracking began. Senate control: 47.5% Democratic; House: 81.5% Democratic. Tomorrow’s primaries in California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota will set the field for November’s marquee battles.

Top Movers — Eve of Election

Biggest pre-primary market moves (May 31 → June 1).

Race	Move	Now
NJ-05 House	+34.0	85.0%
MI-08 House	+31.0	86.0%
VA-07 House	+30.5	90.5%
NY-19 House	+29.5	78.0%
VA-07 House	-27.6	9.0%
NJ-05 House	-27.5	16.5%
NY-19 House	-23.5	19.0%
VA-02 House	+23.0	77.0%
NM-02 House	+23.0	70.5%
CO-05 House	+22.0	66.5%

Source: Polymarket. Day-over-day change in top outcome.

Tomorrow’s Races — Final Market Odds

Pre-election odds for June 2 primary states. These are the last prices before polls open.

State	Race	D Odds	R Odds
CA	Governor	0.2%	0.2%
IA	Senate	38.0%	62.5%
IA	Governor	64.5%	30.5%
MS	Senate	88.0%	12.0%
MT	Senate	1.2%	16.2%
SD	Senate	96.2%	2.4%

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Fav	Underdog	Margin
PA-17 House Election Winner	48.0%	47.5%	0.5 pts
2026 Midterms: House Turnout	29.0%	27.5%	1.5 pts
TX-15 House Election Winner	51.0%	48.5%	2.5 pts
Alaska Governor Election Winner	29.5%	26.5%	3.0 pts
Ohio Senate Election Winner	51.5%	47.5%	4.0 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	51.0%	47.0%	4.0 pts
VA-01 House Election Winner	50.5%	46.0%	4.5 pts
IA-02 House Election Winner	51.0%	46.5%	4.5 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	D: 0.1%, R: 0.1%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	D: 3.6%, R: 96.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	D: 8.0%, R: 91.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	D: 94.5%, R: 6.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	D: 19.5%, R: 81.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	D: 14.8%, R: 85.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	D: 38.0%, R: 62.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	D: 87.0%, R: 6.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	D: 95.5%, R: 4.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	D: 80.5%, R: 17.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	D: 3.5%, R: 95.2%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner	D: 0.0%, R: 0.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	D: 9.0%, R: 89.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	D: 94.5%, R: 4.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	D: 64.5%, R: 36.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	D: 27.5%, R: 72.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	D: 11.0%, R: 89.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	D: 88.0%, R: 12.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	D: 1.2%, R: 16.2%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	D: 85.0%, R: 15.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	D: 4.5%, R: 36.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	D: 77.0%, R: 16.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	D: 94.5%, R: 4.6%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	D: 95.8%, R: 3.1%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	D: 51.5%, R: 47.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	D: 92.5%, R: 6.7%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	D: 7.0%, R: 93.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	D: 93.5%, R: 5.2%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	D: 18.5%, R: 80.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	D: 96.2%, R: 2.4%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	D: 2.8%, R: 96.2%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	D: 39.5%, R: 60.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	D: 0.0%, R: 100.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	D: 92.5%, R: 6.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	D: 3.1%, R: 96.9%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	D: 94.5%, R: 6.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	D: 5.8%, R: 0.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	D: 91.5%, R: 8.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	D: 5.1%, R: 93.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	D: 76.5%, R: 21.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
CA	California Governor Election Winner	D: 0.2%, R: 0.2%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	D: 9.0%, R: 91.2%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	D: 6.5%, R: 92.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	D: 80.0%, R: 19.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	D: 43.5%, R: 55.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	D: 6.6%, R: 91.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	D: 64.5%, R: 30.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	D: 4.5%, R: 95.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	D: 88.5%, R: 12.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	D: 81.5%, R: 2.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	D: 93.0%, R: 3.6%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	D: 9.5%, R: 83.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	D: 15.5%, R: 76.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	D: 86.0%, R: 12.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	D: 54.0%, R: 43.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	D: 86.0%, R: 9.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	D: 14.0%, R: 86.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	D: 92.0%, R: 7.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	D: 89.0%, R: 2.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	D: 90.5%, R: 7.8%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	D: 0.0%, R: 0.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	D: 85.0%, R: 9.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	D: 18.0%, R: 79.5%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	D: 0.0%, R: 0.0%	07:02 PM MDT, Jun 01

📄 About This Post

Eve-of-election market snapshot. These odds were captured before June 2 polls opened. Market odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to original sources.

View the full forecast →

May 31, 2026

Seven states vote Tuesday — California governor and Iowa Senate top the card

Polls Markets

The biggest primary night of the cycle is two days away. California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota vote on June 2. The headliner: California’s open governor race, where Xavier Becerra (D) leads at 0.2% on Polymarket. Iowa Senate remains the marquee battleground — Polymarket has it at 38.0% D. Senate control: 47.5% Democratic; House: 81.5% Democratic.

June 2 Primary Preview — What to Watch

California Governor (Top-Two Primary)

With Gavin Newsom (D) term-limited, 61 candidates are on the ballot. Under California’s top-two system, the top two finishers advance to November regardless of party. Polymarket frontrunners: Xavier Becerra (D) at 0.2%, Tom Steyer (D) at 0.1%, Steve Hilton (R) at 6.2%. A D-vs-D November is very possible.

Iowa Senate

The closest statewide race in the country. Our model rates it a toss-up. Democratic primary features Zach Wahls (D) and Joshua Turek (D). Polymarket: D 38.0%, R 62.5%.

Iowa Governor

Rob Sand (D) is the Democratic frontrunner in a race our model rates Likely D (93.9% D). Republican primary includes Randy Feenstra (R) and Brad Sherman (R). Polymarket: D 64.5%, R 31.5%.

Also Voting Tuesday

State	Key Race	D Odds	R Odds
Mississippi	Senate (Hyde-Smith vs Colom)	88.0%	12.0%
Montana	Senate (Daines incumbent)	1.3%	16.2%
New Jersey	Senate (Booker incumbent)	Safe D	—
New Mexico	Senate (Lujan incumbent)	Safe D	—
South Dakota	Senate (Rounds incumbent)	96.1%	2.1%

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Fav	Underdog	Margin
NY-17 House Election Winner	59.0%	59.0%	0.0 pts
WI-01 House Election Winner	47.0%	46.0%	1.0 pts
2026 Midterms: House Turnout	29.5%	28.0%	1.5 pts
NC-01 House Election Winner	45.5%	43.5%	2.0 pts
NY-22 House Election Winner	51.0%	48.5%	2.5 pts
PA-08 House Election Winner	47.0%	44.5%	2.5 pts
Alaska Governor Election Winner	29.5%	26.5%	3.0 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	43.5%	40.0%	3.5 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	D: 0.1%, R: 0.1%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	D: 3.6%, R: 96.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	D: 8.0%, R: 91.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	D: 94.5%, R: 6.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	D: 19.5%, R: 81.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	D: 13.9%, R: 87.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	D: 38.0%, R: 62.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	D: 88.5%, R: 6.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	D: 95.9%, R: 4.3%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	D: 80.5%, R: 17.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	D: 3.5%, R: 95.1%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner	D: 0.0%, R: 0.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	D: 9.5%, R: 89.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	D: 94.5%, R: 4.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	D: 64.5%, R: 36.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	D: 27.5%, R: 72.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	D: 11.0%, R: 89.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	D: 88.0%, R: 12.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	D: 1.3%, R: 16.2%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	D: 85.5%, R: 15.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	D: 4.5%, R: 36.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	D: 77.0%, R: 16.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	D: 94.5%, R: 4.6%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	D: 95.8%, R: 3.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	D: 52.5%, R: 47.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	D: 92.5%, R: 6.8%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	D: 7.0%, R: 93.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	D: 93.5%, R: 5.2%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	D: 18.5%, R: 80.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	D: 96.1%, R: 2.1%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	D: 2.8%, R: 96.2%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	D: 39.5%, R: 60.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	D: 0.0%, R: 100.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	D: 92.5%, R: 6.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	D: 3.1%, R: 96.9%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	D: 94.5%, R: 6.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	D: 5.8%, R: 0.4%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	D: 91.3%, R: 8.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	D: 5.0%, R: 93.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	D: 76.0%, R: 21.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
CA	California Governor Election Winner	D: 0.2%, R: 0.1%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	D: 9.0%, R: 91.2%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	D: 6.5%, R: 92.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	D: 79.0%, R: 20.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	D: 44.0%, R: 55.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	D: 5.1%, R: 91.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	D: 64.5%, R: 31.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	D: 4.5%, R: 95.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	D: 88.5%, R: 12.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	D: 83.0%, R: 1.9%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	D: 93.0%, R: 3.6%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	D: 6.5%, R: 81.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	D: 19.5%, R: 76.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	D: 86.0%, R: 12.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	D: 54.0%, R: 43.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	D: 86.5%, R: 9.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	D: 14.0%, R: 86.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	D: 92.0%, R: 7.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	D: 88.5%, R: 2.1%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	D: 89.5%, R: 7.8%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	D: 0.0%, R: 0.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	D: 83.5%, R: 9.2%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	D: 18.0%, R: 79.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	D: 0.0%, R: 0.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01

📄 About This Post

June 2 primary preview. Market odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Model projections from our polling average. All numbers link to original sources.

View the full forecast →

May 30, 2026

Ohio Senate at 52.5% D — the tightest race on the board

Polls Markets

With primary fields now set in 18 states, the competitive landscape is crystallizing. Ohio Senate is the closest race in the country at 52.5% Democratic on Polymarket. Iowa Senate sits at 38.0% D — another toss-up. Senate control odds: 47.5% Democratic. House: 81.5% Democratic.

Senate Battleground Snapshot

The races that will decide Senate control, ranked by competitiveness.

Race	D Odds	R Odds	Rating
AK Senate	0.1%	0.1%	Likely R
KY Senate	0.0%	0.0%	Likely R
OH Senate	52.5%	47.5%	Lean D
MT Senate	1.3%	16.2%	Likely R
TX Senate	39.5%	60.5%	Lean R
IA Senate	38.0%	62.5%	Lean R
ME Senate	64.5%	36.5%	Likely D

Source: Polymarket. Races with <30 point margin shown.

Governor Battlegrounds

Race	D Odds	R Odds	Rating
UT Governor	0.0%	0.0%	Likely R
WV Governor	0.0%	0.0%	Likely R
CA Governor	0.2%	0.1%	Likely R
AK Governor	5.8%	0.4%	Likely R
GA Governor	44.0%	55.0%	Toss-up
OH Governor	54.0%	43.0%	Lean D

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Fav	Underdog	Margin
NY-17 House Election Winner	59.0%	59.0%	0.0 pts
WI-01 House Election Winner	47.0%	46.0%	1.0 pts
2026 Midterms: House Turnout	29.5%	28.0%	1.5 pts
NC-01 House Election Winner	45.5%	43.5%	2.0 pts
NY-22 House Election Winner	51.0%	48.5%	2.5 pts
PA-08 House Election Winner	47.0%	44.5%	2.5 pts
Alaska Governor Election Winner	29.5%	26.5%	3.0 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	43.5%	40.0%	3.5 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	D: 0.1%, R: 0.1%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	D: 3.6%, R: 96.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	D: 8.0%, R: 91.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	D: 94.5%, R: 6.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	D: 19.5%, R: 81.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	D: 13.9%, R: 87.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	D: 38.0%, R: 62.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	D: 88.5%, R: 6.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	D: 95.9%, R: 4.3%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	D: 80.5%, R: 17.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	D: 3.5%, R: 95.1%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner	D: 0.0%, R: 0.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	D: 9.5%, R: 89.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	D: 94.5%, R: 4.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	D: 64.5%, R: 36.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	D: 27.5%, R: 72.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	D: 11.0%, R: 89.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	D: 88.0%, R: 12.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	D: 1.3%, R: 16.2%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	D: 85.5%, R: 15.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	D: 4.5%, R: 36.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	D: 77.0%, R: 16.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	D: 94.5%, R: 4.6%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	D: 95.8%, R: 3.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	D: 52.5%, R: 47.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	D: 92.5%, R: 6.8%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	D: 7.0%, R: 93.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	D: 93.5%, R: 5.2%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	D: 18.5%, R: 80.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	D: 96.1%, R: 2.1%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	D: 2.8%, R: 96.2%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	D: 39.5%, R: 60.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	D: 0.0%, R: 100.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	D: 92.5%, R: 6.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	D: 3.1%, R: 96.9%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	D: 94.5%, R: 6.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	D: 5.8%, R: 0.4%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	D: 91.3%, R: 8.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	D: 5.0%, R: 93.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	D: 76.0%, R: 21.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
CA	California Governor Election Winner	D: 0.2%, R: 0.1%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	D: 9.0%, R: 91.2%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	D: 6.5%, R: 92.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	D: 79.0%, R: 20.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	D: 44.0%, R: 55.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	D: 5.1%, R: 91.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	D: 64.5%, R: 31.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	D: 4.5%, R: 95.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	D: 88.5%, R: 12.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	D: 83.0%, R: 1.9%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	D: 93.0%, R: 3.6%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	D: 6.5%, R: 81.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	D: 19.5%, R: 76.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	D: 86.0%, R: 12.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	D: 54.0%, R: 43.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	D: 86.5%, R: 9.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	D: 14.0%, R: 86.5%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	D: 92.0%, R: 7.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	D: 88.5%, R: 2.1%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	D: 89.5%, R: 7.8%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	D: 0.0%, R: 0.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	D: 83.5%, R: 9.2%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	D: 18.0%, R: 79.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	D: 0.0%, R: 0.0%	11:27 PM MDT, Jun 01

📄 About This Post

Daily battleground analysis. Market odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to original sources.

View the full forecast →

May 29, 2026

Paxton wins TX runoff 64–36 — markets price Texas Senate as competitive

Polls Markets

Three days after Ken Paxton (R) defeated John Cornyn (R) 64–36 in the Texas Senate runoff, Polymarket prices the general election at 60.5% Republican — making Texas one of the more competitive Senate races on the board. Senate control sits at 47.5% Democratic; House odds at 81.5% Democratic. With the May 19 primaries settling fields in Georgia, Kentucky, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Alabama, and Idaho, the 2026 map is coming into focus.

Post-Runoff Landscape

Texas Senate: Paxton (R) won the May 26 runoff with 64% after defeating Cornyn (R) who took 36%. The Democratic nominee James Talarico (D) won his primary with 52.4% (1,216,412 votes). Polymarket: R 60.5%, D 39.5%.

Georgia: Jon Ossoff (D) ran unopposed for the Democratic Senate nomination. The Republican primary heads to a June 16 runoff between Mike Collins (R) and Derek Dooley (R). Governor also goes to R runoff: Burt Jones (R) vs Rick Jackson (R).

Kentucky Senate: Andy Barr (R) won with 60.5%; Charles Booker (D) took the D primary with 46.8%.

Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) cruised with 93.2%; David Brock Smith (R) won a crowded R field with 29.5%. Governor: Tina Kotek (D) 83.7%, Christine Drazan (R) 40.8%.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

Race	Fav	Underdog	Margin
NY-17 House Election Winner	59.0%	59.0%	0.0 pts
WI-01 House Election Winner	47.0%	46.0%	1.0 pts
2026 Midterms: House Turnout	29.5%	28.0%	1.5 pts
NC-01 House Election Winner	45.5%	43.5%	2.0 pts
NY-22 House Election Winner	51.0%	48.5%	2.5 pts
PA-08 House Election Winner	47.0%	44.5%	2.5 pts
Alaska Governor Election Winner	29.5%	26.5%	3.0 pts
PA-01 House Election Winner	43.5%	40.0%	3.5 pts

Full Market Data & Race Tables ▼

All Senate Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Senate Election Winner	D: 0.1%, R: 0.1%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
AR	Arkansas Senate Election Winner	D: 3.6%, R: 96.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
CO	Colorado Senate Election Winner	D: 8.0%, R: 91.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
DE	Delaware Senate Election Winner	D: 94.5%, R: 6.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
FL	Florida Senate Election Winner	D: 19.5%, R: 81.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
GA	Georgia Senate Election Winner	D: 13.9%, R: 87.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
IA	Iowa Senate Election Winner	D: 38.0%, R: 62.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
ID	Idaho Senate Election Winner	D: 88.5%, R: 6.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
IL	Illinois Senate Election Winner	D: 95.9%, R: 4.3%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
KS	Kansas Senate Election Winner	D: 80.5%, R: 17.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
KY	Kentucky Senate Election Winner	D: 3.5%, R: 95.1%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
KY	Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner	D: 0.0%, R: 0.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
KY	Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
LA	Louisiana Senate Election Winner	D: 9.5%, R: 89.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
MA	Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	D: 94.5%, R: 4.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
ME	Maine Senate Election Winner	D: 64.5%, R: 36.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
MI	Michigan Senate Election Winner	D: 27.5%, R: 72.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
MN	Minnesota Senate Election Winner	D: 11.0%, R: 89.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
MS	Mississippi Senate Election Winner	D: 88.0%, R: 12.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
MT	Montana Senate Election Winner	D: 1.3%, R: 16.2%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
NC	North Carolina Senate Election Winner	D: 85.5%, R: 15.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
NE	Nebraska Senate Election Winner	D: 4.5%, R: 36.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
NH	New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	D: 77.0%, R: 16.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
NJ	New Jersey Senate Election Winner	D: 94.5%, R: 4.6%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
NM	New Mexico Senate Election Winner	D: 95.8%, R: 3.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
OH	Ohio Senate Election Winner	D: 52.5%, R: 47.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
OK	Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	D: 92.5%, R: 6.8%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
OR	Oregon Senate Election Winner	D: 7.0%, R: 93.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
RI	Rhode Island Senate Election Winner	D: 93.5%, R: 5.2%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
SC	South Carolina Senate Election Winner	D: 18.5%, R: 80.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
SD	South Dakota Senate Election Winner	D: 96.1%, R: 2.1%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
TN	Tennessee Senate Election Winner	D: 2.8%, R: 96.2%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
TX	Texas Senate Election Winner	D: 39.5%, R: 60.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
TX	Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner	D: 0.0%, R: 100.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
VA	Virginia Senate Election Winner	D: 92.5%, R: 6.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
WV	West Virginia Senate Election Winner	D: 3.1%, R: 96.9%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
WY	Wyoming Senate Election Winner	D: 94.5%, R: 6.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01

All Governor Races — Market Odds

State	Market	Odds	Captured
AK	Alaska Governor Election Winner	D: 5.8%, R: 0.4%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
AL	Alabama Governor Election Winner	D: 91.3%, R: 8.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
AR	Arkansas Governor Election Winner	D: 5.0%, R: 93.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
AZ	Arizona Governor Election Winner	D: 76.0%, R: 21.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
CA	California Governor Election Winner	D: 0.2%, R: 0.1%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
CO	Colorado Governor Election Winner	D: 9.0%, R: 91.2%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
CT	Connecticut Governor Election Winner	D: 6.5%, R: 92.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
DE	Delaware Governor Election Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
FL	Florida Governor Election Winner	D: 79.0%, R: 20.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
GA	Georgia Governor Election Winner	D: 44.0%, R: 55.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
HI	Hawaii Governor Election Winner	D: 5.1%, R: 91.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
IA	Iowa Governor Election Winner	D: 64.5%, R: 31.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
MA	Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	D: 4.5%, R: 95.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
ME	Maine Governor Election Winner	D: 88.5%, R: 12.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
MI	Michigan Governor Election Winner	D: 83.0%, R: 1.9%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
MN	Minnesota Governor Election Winner	D: 93.0%, R: 3.6%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
MO	Missouri Governor Election Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
ND	North Dakota Governor Election Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
NE	Nebraska Governor Election Winner	D: 6.5%, R: 81.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
NH	New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	D: 19.5%, R: 76.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
NY	New York Governor Election Winner	D: 86.0%, R: 12.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
OH	Ohio Governor Election Winner	D: 54.0%, R: 43.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
OK	Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	D: 86.5%, R: 9.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
OR	Oregon Governor Election Winner	D: 14.0%, R: 86.5%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
PA	Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner	D: 92.0%, R: 7.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
RI	Rhode Island Governor Election Winner	D: 88.5%, R: 2.1%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
SC	South Carolina Governor Election Winner	D: 89.5%, R: 7.8%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
UT	Utah Governor Election Winner	D: 0.0%, R: 0.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
VT	Vermont Governor Election Winner	D: 83.5%, R: 9.2%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
WA	Washington Governor Election Winner	D: 100.0%, R: 0.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
WI	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	D: 18.0%, R: 79.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01
WV	West Virginia Governor Election Winner	D: 0.0%, R: 0.0%	11:26 PM MDT, Jun 01

📄 About This Post

Daily roundup covering the post-runoff landscape. Election results from official Secretary of State pages (linked). Market odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. All numbers link to original sources.

View the full forecast →

May 26, 2026

Ballot Measures, Three-Phase Elections, Runoff Banners

v2.2

Ballot measures database: 75 certified measures across 38 states added (data/ballot_measures.py). Categories: abortion (3), gender/LGBTQ (5), voting (15), taxes (9), labor (3), housing (3), firearms (2), education (3), government (10), immigration (3), marijuana (2), healthcare (2), drugs (1). 8 measures have polling data.
Ballot measures on state pages: Each state detail page now shows a "Ballot Measures" section with collapsible accordions showing description, category badge, election date, status, and polling data.
API endpoints: /api/2026/ballot (all measures), /api/2026/ballot/{state} (per state). Measures also included in state detail response.
Three-phase election model: Added RUNOFF_DATES to race_projector.py. States with runoffs now show a distinct runoff phase between primary and general. TX: May 26, GA: Jun 16, AL: Jun 16.
Runoff banners on state pages: Three new banner states: "Runoff upcoming" (orange countdown), "RUNOFF DAY" (pulsing orange with poll-close time), "Runoff completed" (green). TX shows RUNOFF DAY today.
election_dates API expanded: Now returns runoff, runoff_passed, runoff_today fields alongside primary/general dates.
RUNOFF_DATES_FOR_RESULTS: Added to eliminations.py with is_runoff_counting() function for 5-day vote-counting window after runoffs.

May 24, 2026

50-State SOS Scrapers, IL Official Canvass, Full Vote Count Audit

v2.1

50-state SOS scrapers: Built automated election results scrapers for all 50 states. 8 currently return live data (GA 449 races, ID 212, OH 37, NC 21, OR 16, KY 7, NE 5). Remaining 42 states scaffolded with correct URLs and platform-specific parsers (Clarity Elections, custom portals).
Overwrite protection: Scrapers now refuse to save results if they'd overwrite existing data with fewer races (>10% drop threshold). Prevents bad scrapes from destroying good data.
IL Official Canvass: Extracted all 17 House districts from the official PDF at elections.il.gov — every candidate with exact certified vote counts. Source: "Official Canvass, General Primary Election, March 17, 2026."
OR official SOS data: All 6 House districts + Senate + Governor with vote counts from results.oregonvotes.gov. Text-parsing scraper handles the AJAX-loaded layout.
GA data restored and expanded: Re-scraped 449 races (820 candidates) from results.sos.ga.gov using Clarity text parser. Found 4 House runoffs we'd missed (GA-01 D, GA-07 D, GA-11 R, GA-12 D).
AL official SOS vote counts: Governor, Senate, and House districts 01/03/04 updated from www2.alabamavotes.gov (67/67 counties, 879,785 ballots).
TX House vote counts: All 38 districts now have winner vote counts from AP/Wikipedia data. Missing winners filled: TX-33 R/D, TX-35 D, TX-37 R.
PA House vote counts: All 17 districts with votes from Wikipedia/MediaWiki API section extraction.
NE official SOS corrections: Senate R 160,520 (was 160,019), Senate D 110,171 (was 109,129), Governor D 116,424 votes added, all 3 House districts updated.
IN added to eliminations.py: All 9 House districts. No Senate/Governor primary (conventions).
KY scraper fixed: Bot detection bypass with UA spoofing. Now returns all 7 races.
OH scraper fixed: Security bypass + tab navigation + text parsing. 37 races.
Vote count audit: 278/279 House races now have complete data. 1 pending (AL-05 D runoff). 4 unopposed candidates marked.
6 new polls added: GA runoff (InsiderAdvantage), NC Senate (Harper), TX runoff (TexPolls), MA primary (Emerson), IA Governor (Echelon). Database: 216+ polls.

May 22, 2026

Post-Primary Overhaul: GE Switch, Official SOS Scrapers, Full Data Audit

v2.0

General election switch: States with completed primaries now show GE predictions only. Primary polls (same-party matchups like Gallrein vs Massie) are automatically filtered out after primary day. Model predicts November matchups, not past primaries.
Official SOS scrapers built (scraper/sos_scraper.js) — Puppeteer-based scrapers for NC (er.ncsbe.gov, 21 races, 71 candidates certified) and GA (results.sos.ga.gov, 224 races, 395 candidates). Framework ready for remaining 10 states.
Primary results for all 13 states: 255 winners, 20 runoff candidates, 695 eliminated across TX, IL, NC, OH, IN, NE, WV, KY, GA, AL, OR, PA, ID. Every race that occurred is catalogued.
Candidate display rebuilt: Winners show green NOMINEE badge, runoff candidates show orange RUNOFF badge. Eliminated candidates hidden in collapsible "Show X eliminated from primary" section. Status column shows "Nominee"/"Runoff" instead of "filed".
Primary % column added with vote counts on hover tooltip (e.g., hover "60.5%" to see "283,703 votes")
Missing data computed: If we have % but not votes (or vice versa), the server now computes the missing value from same-party race totals
Pre-primary market filtering: Before primary day, GE prediction markets (R vs D) are flagged as pre_primary. After primary, only GE markets shown, primary markets hidden.
Polymarket in Governor/Senate accordions: Statewide races now show Poly battle cards inside dropdowns (was only showing for House districts)
Indiana added: All 9 House districts with full primary results (was completely missing)
AL primary date fixed: Was set to June 2, corrected to May 19
IL candidate data fixed: Candidates were returning empty due to a None party value crashing the sort function. 226 IL candidates now load correctly.
ID party mismatch fixed: Jim Risch listed as party "O" in BallotBudget — matching now lenient for non-standard parties (O/I/L/G)
Name matching tightened: "Mayra Flores" no longer matches "Eric Flores" — first initial must match when both names have first names
GA official vote counts corrected: Cross-referenced against results.sos.ga.gov. Ossoff updated from 1,037,635 to 1,040,782 (late ballots). Governor R runoff: Jones 357,933, Jackson 303,451 (corrected from earlier estimates).
Election day banner: Pulsing countdown with per-second ticker to poll closing time. Shows "POLLS CLOSED" after close, then "Results coming in" state.
5-day counting window: States within 5 days of their primary show "votes still being counted" note. Auto-clears after 5 days.
About page updated to 8/8 track record with KY-04 Gallrein result
Docker image rebuilt — all code baked into pollsvspoly:latest, no more hot-patching risk

May 21, 2026

New Polls, Kalshi/PredictIt API Integration, Page Load Optimization

v1.9

Added 3 new polls: FL Senate (Vindman +2, Change Research), FL Governor (Jolly +4, Change Research), NC Senate (Cooper +7, Carolina Forward). Total: 202 polls.
Kalshi API integrated — live odds from public API, no auth required. KY-04 showed $7.8M volume on Kalshi alone.
PredictIt API integrated — 244 election markets fetched. Odds shown inline where matching race data exists.
Market links now only appear when real data exists — no more empty placeholders
Self-hosted D3.js and TopoJSON — removed CDN dependency, serves from same server
Gzip compression enabled in nginx — D3.js 280KB → ~85KB compressed
Deferred tab content loading — only map + scorecard block initial render, tabs load in background
Replaced 141KB /api/polls-all fetch with 50-byte /api/2026/stats endpoint for header
Page load: 2.5s warm cache (was 4.5s+)
Sources page with Markets tab — all Polymarket data browsable by state/type/volume with search
Polymarket cache refresh endpoint: /api/polymarket/refresh with hourly cron

May 19, 2026

Election Day Updates

v1.8

Added SoCal Strategies poll (Gallrein +7) — 6th poll for KY-04, model now at 80.6% Gallrein
Fixed Polymarket district key collision — KY-04 primary market was being overwritten by KY-06. Both now resolve correctly
Poly badge now shows at the top of accordion dropdowns when no polls exist (previously buried at bottom)
KY-04 accordion now shows full Polls vs Poly battle card (81% vs 61%)
Updated blog post with election day Polymarket odds (Gallrein 62%, Massie 38%)
Added turnout data: 184K+ early ballots, 75% surge over last primary
Added Kalshi and PredictIt links alongside Polymarket on all battle cards — three prediction market sources now linked everywhere odds are shown
No-polls poly display now uses same battle card grid layout as polls+poly cards (was a small inline badge)
Blog split into Analysis and Changelog tabs
Integrated Kalshi API (public, no auth) — live odds and volume now pulled from Kalshi alongside Polymarket. KY-04 shows $7.8M traded on Kalshi alone
Integrated PredictIt API — 244 election markets now searchable. Odds shown inline where available
Market links now only appear when real data exists for that race (no more empty "—" placeholders)
Election Day banner with live second-by-second countdown to polls closing — pulsing orange for primary day, red for general. Shows poll closing time per state (e.g., "Polls close 6pm ET (2h 14m 37s)")
Sources page: column headers with tooltip on sample types — hover "518 LV" to see "Likely Voters, model weight 1.0x"

May 18, 2026

Sources Page, Markets Tab, Header Stats

v1.7

New Sources page with sortable/searchable poll database (By State, By Date, By Pollster)
Added Markets tab on Sources page — all Polymarket markets listed with live odds, volume, and direct links
Header stats now dynamically update from API (was hardcoded "189 polls")
Header stats and market count are clickable links to their respective Sources tabs
Polymarket cache extended to 60 min with hourly cron refresh
Added /api/polymarket/refresh endpoint for forced cache refresh
Markets tab uses single bulk API call instead of 50 individual state requests

May 17, 2026

Blog Launch, Mobile Responsive, Hero Banner

v1.6

Launched blog with 3 initial posts (KY-04 Poly convergence, 4 disagreement races, platform launch)
Hero banner now switches per tab — shows Senate/Governor/House control based on active view
Hero Poly side shows dollar volume traded and links to Polymarket
Map click now single-click navigation to state page (was double-click)
Added mobile responsive CSS — tally grid, nav, hero, state page all adapt to small screens
Map API cached for 5 minutes to reduce load times
Fonts load non-blocking (page paints instantly with system fonts, swaps when custom fonts load)

May 16, 2026

Polymarket Expansion, Primary Race Fix

v1.5

Expanded from 66 to 167 Polymarket markets (87 House districts, 42 Governor, 37 Senate)
Fixed governor slug format — many were silently failing (-election-winner → -winner-2026)
Fixed KY-04 primary comparison — was comparing primary polls against GE Poly market (R 91% vs D 9%). Now uses primary market (Gallrein vs Massie)
Fixed (R-inc) pattern matching — "(r-inc)".includes("(r)") returns false, changed to match "(r"
Primary race labels now show candidate names instead of "DEM"/"REP"
Added verdict bar to accordion inline battle cards
Challenger status shows "Favored"/"Underdog" when polled (was showing "filed")

May 15, 2026

Model Calibration, Site Launch

v1.0

Deployed to pollsvspoly.com on EverScrape EC2 (Docker + nginx + Let's Encrypt SSL)
pollvspoly.com redirects to pollsvspoly.com, www redirects on both domains
Added state partisan lean (PVI) regression — prevents overconfidence in hostile territory (e.g., D leading in Alaska)
Increased base uncertainty from 3.0 to 3.5 to account for systematic polling error
Added 2 new KY-04 polls (Gallrein leading Massie in May polls)
Fixed stale forecast_date in polls API (was hardcoded May 10, now uses date.today())
Fixed house flip deduplication — was counting each poll as a separate flip
Cross-reference audit: 38/38 automated checks passing
About page with methodology, verified track record (7/7 primaries), and disclaimer
Tally bar columns aligned with CSS grid (Safe R, Safe D, In Play, Flip, No Data)
Disagreements map tooltip now shows per-race Polls vs Poly breakdown
Green checkmark badges on map for states with completed primaries