Republicans climbs to 40.5% in Ohio Governor — up 4.0 points

Republicans jumped 4.0 points to 40.5% in the Ohio Governor market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 62.5% Democratic and House odds at 92.5%.

What Moved

Ohio Governor — Republicans ticked up 4.0 points to 40.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining. Democrats fell correspondingly to 59.5%. The Ohio governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

Iowa Governor — Democrats dipped 4.0 points to 83.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored. The Iowa governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

VA-01 House — Democratic Party ticked up 4.0 points to 36.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining.

GA-12 House — Republican Party ticked up 3.5 points to 92.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored.

NY-17 House — Democratic Party dipped 3.0 points to 61.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored.

NJ-07 House — Republican Party dipped 3.0 points to 9.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate fading further.

OH-01 House — Democratic Party dipped 3.0 points to 86.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored.

NY-21 House — Republican Party ticked up 3.0 points to 83.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored. Democratic Party fell correspondingly to 17.5%.

Races on the Razor's Edge

These are the contests where the margin is 5 points or less — the kind of races that keep campaign managers up at night and make election nights unpredictable.

FL-22 House: Democratic Party leads at 50.5% over Republican Party at 48.5% — a true coin flip with just 2.0 points separating them.

MI-04 House: Republican Party leads at 52.5% over Democratic Party at 48.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

Georgia Governor: Democrats leads at 52.5% over Republicans at 47.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 5.0 points separating them.

The Big Picture

In the battle for the Senate, Democrats hold a comfortable edge with Democratic odds at 62.5%. On the House side, Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 92.5%.

View the full forecast →

Democratic Party drops to 32.5% in VA-01 House — down 8.0 points

Democratic Party fell 8.0 points to 32.5% in the VA-01 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 62.5% Democratic and House odds at 92.5%.

What Moved

VA-01 House — Democratic Party slipped 8.0 points to 32.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further. Republican Party rose correspondingly to 66.0%.

Oregon Governor — Democrats slipped 7.5 points to 79.0%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored. Republicans rose correspondingly to 19.5%. The Oregon governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

Maine Senate — Democrats dipped 4.0 points to 59.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored. Republicans rose correspondingly to 40.5%. Senate control overall sits at 62.5% for Democrats.

FL-27 House — Republican Party dipped 4.0 points to 60.0%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored.

NJ-07 House — Republican Party dipped 4.0 points to 12.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate fading further. Democratic Party rose correspondingly to 87.5%.

Iowa Governor — Democrats ticked up 3.5 points to 87.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored. The Iowa governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

Races on the Razor's Edge

These are the contests where the margin is 5 points or less — the kind of races that keep campaign managers up at night and make election nights unpredictable.

FL-22 House: Democratic Party leads at 51.5% over Republican Party at 48.0% — within the margin of error with just 3.5 points separating them.

MI-04 House: Republican Party leads at 52.5% over Democratic Party at 48.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

The Big Picture

In the battle for the Senate, Democrats hold a comfortable edge with Democratic odds at 62.5%. On the House side, Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 92.5%.

View the full forecast →

Republican Party drops to 13.5% in CO-08 House — down 5.0 points

Republican Party fell 5.0 points to 13.5% in the CO-08 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 62.5% Democratic and House odds at 92.5%.

What Moved

CO-08 House — Republican Party slipped 5.0 points to 13.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further. Democratic Party rose correspondingly to 85.5%.

Maine Senate — Republicans ticked up 3.0 points to 36.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining. Democrats fell correspondingly to 63.5%. Senate control overall sits at 62.5% for Democrats.

TX-15 House — Republican Party dipped 3.0 points to 23.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate fading further. Democratic Party rose correspondingly to 75.5%.

Vermont Governor — Democrats ticked up 2.6 points to 16.4%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining. Republicans fell correspondingly to 83.0%. The Vermont governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

FL-25 House — Republican Party dipped 2.5 points to 24.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate fading further.

Iowa Senate — Democrats dipped 2.0 points to 41.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate fading further. Senate control overall sits at 62.5% for Democrats.

Races on the Razor's Edge

These are the contests where the margin is 5 points or less — the kind of races that keep campaign managers up at night and make election nights unpredictable.

MI-04 House: Republican Party leads at 52.5% over Democratic Party at 48.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

The Big Picture

In the battle for the Senate, Democrats hold a comfortable edge with Democratic odds at 62.5%. On the House side, Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 92.5%.

View the full forecast →

Todd Achilles climbs to 9.7% in Idaho Senate — up 5.5 points

Todd Achilles jumped 5.5 points to 9.7% in the Idaho Senate market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 62.5% Democratic and House odds at 92.5%.

What Moved

Idaho Senate — Todd Achilles climbed 5.5 points to 9.7%, a notable move that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining. Republicans fell correspondingly to 89.9%. Senate control overall sits at 62.5% for Democrats.

New Hampshire Governor — Democrats dipped 4.5 points to 5.1%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate fading further. The New Hampshire governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

Vermont Governor — Republicans ticked up 4.5 points to 85.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored. Democrats fell correspondingly to 13.8%. The Vermont governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

FL-25 House — Republican Party dipped 4.5 points to 27.0%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate fading further. Democratic Party rose correspondingly to 73.0%.

TX-05 House — Democratic Party dipped 4.3 points to 1.2%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate fading further.

PA-07 House — Republican Party dipped 4.0 points to 16.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate fading further.

NE-01 House — Democratic Party dipped 4.0 points to 14.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate fading further.

Races on the Razor's Edge

These are the contests where the margin is 5 points or less — the kind of races that keep campaign managers up at night and make election nights unpredictable.

MI-04 House: Republican Party leads at 52.5% over Democratic Party at 48.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

The Big Picture

In the battle for the Senate, Democrats hold a comfortable edge with Democratic odds at 62.5%. On the House side, Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 92.5%.

View the full forecast →

Democrats surges 11.4 points in Vermont Governor — now at 17.5%

Democrats jumped 11.4 points to 17.5% in the Vermont Governor market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 62.5% Democratic and House odds at 92.5%.

What Moved

Vermont Governor — Democrats surged 11.4 points to 17.5%, a significant shift that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining. Republicans fell correspondingly to 81.0%. The Vermont governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

FL-22 House — Democratic Party climbed 7.0 points to 53.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate in a tightening race. Republican Party fell correspondingly to 46.5%.

AZ-02 House — Democratic Party climbed 5.5 points to 39.0%, a notable move that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining. Republican Party fell correspondingly to 61.5%.

Maine Senate — Democrats slipped 5.0 points to 68.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored. Republicans rose correspondingly to 31.5%. Senate control overall sits at 62.5% for Democrats.

Florida Governor — Democrats slipped 5.0 points to 22.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further. Republicans rose correspondingly to 77.5%. The Florida governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

Races on the Razor's Edge

These are the contests where the margin is 5 points or less — the kind of races that keep campaign managers up at night and make election nights unpredictable.

MI-04 House: Republican Party leads at 52.5% over Democratic Party at 48.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

The Big Picture

In the battle for the Senate, Democrats hold a comfortable edge with Democratic odds at 62.5%. On the House side, Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 92.5%.

View the full forecast →

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins drops to 77.0% in Alaska Governor — down 6.2 points

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins fell 6.2 points to 77.0% in the Alaska Governor market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 65.5% Democratic and House odds at 92.5%.

What Moved

Alaska Governor — Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins slipped 6.2 points to 77.0%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored. Bernadette Wilson rose correspondingly to 19.5%. The Alaska governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

Georgia Governor — Republicans climbed 6.0 points to 45.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate in a tightening race. Democrats fell correspondingly to 55.5%. The Georgia governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

Alaska Senate — Dan Sullivan climbed 5.0 points to 26.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining. Senate control overall sits at 65.5% for Democrats.

NY-17 House — Republican Party slipped 5.0 points to 31.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further.

AZ-02 House — Democratic Party climbed 5.0 points to 33.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining.

OH-01 House — Republican Party slipped 5.0 points to 9.8%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further.

NY-01 House — Democratic Party slipped 5.0 points to 12.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further.

TX-35 House — Republican Party ticked up 4.5 points to 33.0%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining.

Races on the Razor's Edge

These are the contests where the margin is 5 points or less — the kind of races that keep campaign managers up at night and make election nights unpredictable.

MI-04 House: Republican Party leads at 52.5% over Democratic Party at 48.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

The Big Picture

In the battle for the Senate, Democrats hold a comfortable edge with Democratic odds at 65.5%. On the House side, Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 92.5%.

View the full forecast →

Republican Party drops to 28.5% in TX-35 House — down 8.5 points

Republican Party fell 8.5 points to 28.5% in the TX-35 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 65.5% Democratic and House odds at 92.5%.

What Moved

TX-35 House — Republican Party slipped 8.5 points to 28.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further. Democratic Party rose correspondingly to 71.0%.

Michigan Senate — Republicans slipped 8.0 points to 25.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further. Democrats rose correspondingly to 74.5%. Senate control overall sits at 65.5% for Democrats.

Florida Governor — Democrats climbed 5.0 points to 26.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining. The Florida governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

AZ-01 House — Republican Party slipped 5.0 points to 25.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further.

TX-34 House — Democratic Party climbed 5.0 points to 81.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored.

TX-23 House — Republican Party slipped 5.0 points to 59.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored.

NY-01 House — Republican Party climbed 5.0 points to 80.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored. Democratic Party fell correspondingly to 17.5%.

Races on the Razor's Edge

These are the contests where the margin is 5 points or less — the kind of races that keep campaign managers up at night and make election nights unpredictable.

Iowa Senate: Republicans leads at 51.5% over Democrats at 47.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

IA-02 House: Democratic Party leads at 51.5% over Republican Party at 47.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

MI-04 House: Republican Party leads at 52.5% over Democratic Party at 48.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

The Big Picture

In the battle for the Senate, Democrats hold a comfortable edge with Democratic odds at 65.5%. On the House side, Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 92.5%.

View the full forecast →

Republicans plummets 10.5 points in Ohio Senate — now at 35.0%

Republicans fell 10.5 points to 35.0% in the Ohio Senate market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 64.5% Democratic and House odds at 92.5%.

What Moved

Ohio Senate — Republicans cratered 10.5 points to 35.0%, a significant shift that leaves the candidate fading further. Democrats rose correspondingly to 63.5%. Senate control overall sits at 64.5% for Democrats.

Kansas Senate — Democrats climbed 7.5 points to 33.0%, a notable move that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining. Republicans fell correspondingly to 67.5%. Senate control overall sits at 64.5% for Democrats.

Iowa Senate — Republicans slipped 6.5 points to 54.0%, a notable move that leaves the candidate in a tightening race. Democrats rose correspondingly to 45.0%. Senate control overall sits at 64.5% for Democrats.

TX-32 House — Democratic Party ticked up 4.1 points to 9.3%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026? — Democratic Party ticked up 4.0 points to 64.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored. Republican Party fell correspondingly to 35.5%. Senate control overall sits at 64.5% for Democrats.

NJ-09 House — Republican Party dipped 3.6 points to 3.4%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate fading further.

Races on the Razor's Edge

These are the contests where the margin is 5 points or less — the kind of races that keep campaign managers up at night and make election nights unpredictable.

IA-02 House: Democratic Party leads at 51.5% over Republican Party at 47.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

MI-04 House: Republican Party leads at 52.5% over Democratic Party at 48.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

The Big Picture

In the battle for the Senate, Democrats hold a comfortable edge with Democratic odds at 64.5%. On the House side, Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 92.5%.

View the full forecast →

Todd Achilles plummets 34.2 points in Idaho Senate — now at 3.8%

Todd Achilles fell 34.2 points to 3.8% in the Idaho Senate market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 60.5% Democratic and House odds at 92.5%.

What Moved

Idaho Senate — Todd Achilles cratered 34.2 points to 3.8%, a dramatic swing that leaves the candidate fading further. Senate control overall sits at 60.5% for Democrats.

TX-32 House — Democratic Party slipped 8.3 points to 5.2%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further. Republican Party rose correspondingly to 92.5%.

Alabama Governor — Republicans climbed 5.2 points to 96.8%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored. The Alabama governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

AZ-01 House — Republican Party climbed 5.0 points to 30.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining. Democratic Party fell correspondingly to 70.5%.

Iowa Governor — Republicans dipped 4.5 points to 19.0%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate fading further. Democrats rose correspondingly to 81.0%. The Iowa governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

New Hampshire Governor — Republicans ticked up 4.0 points to 93.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored. The New Hampshire governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

TX-15 House — Democratic Party dipped 4.0 points to 67.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored.

Races on the Razor's Edge

These are the contests where the margin is 5 points or less — the kind of races that keep campaign managers up at night and make election nights unpredictable.

MI-04 House: Republican Party leads at 52.5% over Democratic Party at 48.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

The Big Picture

In the battle for the Senate, Democrats hold a comfortable edge with Democratic odds at 60.5%. On the House side, Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 92.5%.

View the full forecast →

Todd Achilles surges 34.6 points in Idaho Senate — now at 38.0%

Todd Achilles jumped 34.6 points to 38.0% in the Idaho Senate market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 60.5% Democratic and House odds at 92.5%.

What Moved

Idaho Senate — Todd Achilles surged 34.6 points to 38.0%, a dramatic swing that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining. Senate control overall sits at 60.5% for Democrats.

TX-15 House — Democratic Party climbed 6.0 points to 71.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored. Republican Party fell correspondingly to 29.5%.

Alaska Governor — Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins climbed 5.5 points to 83.0%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored. Bernadette Wilson fell correspondingly to 15.0%. The Alaska governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

New Hampshire Governor — Democrats slipped 5.0 points to 5.2%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further. The New Hampshire governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

Which party will win the House in 2026? — Republican Party dipped 3.0 points to 7.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate fading further. Senate control overall sits at 60.5% for Democrats.

Georgia Governor — Democrats ticked up 3.0 points to 59.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored. The Georgia governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

MI-07 House — Democratic Party ticked up 3.0 points to 56.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored.

MN-01 House — Republican Party dipped 3.0 points to 74.0%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored.

Races on the Razor's Edge

These are the contests where the margin is 5 points or less — the kind of races that keep campaign managers up at night and make election nights unpredictable.

MI-04 House: Republican Party leads at 52.5% over Democratic Party at 48.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

IA-02 House: Democratic Party leads at 53.5% over Republican Party at 48.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 5.0 points separating them.

The Big Picture

In the battle for the Senate, Democrats hold a comfortable edge with Democratic odds at 60.5%. On the House side, Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 92.5%.