Democratic Party plummets 17.0 points in MN-01 House — now at 28.0%

Democratic Party fell 17.0 points to 28.0% in the MN-01 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 52.5% Democratic and House odds at 87.5%.

What Moved

MN-01 House — Democratic Party cratered 17.0 points to 28.0%, a dramatic swing that leaves the candidate fading further. Republican Party rose correspondingly to 70.0%.

OH-09 House — Democratic Party cratered 14.5 points to 67.5%, a significant shift that leaves the candidate now favored. Republican Party rose correspondingly to 29.0%.

FL-25 House — Republican Party cratered 13.5 points to 19.0%, a significant shift that leaves the candidate fading further.

TX-15 House — Republican Party surged 10.0 points to 51.0%, a significant shift that leaves the candidate in a tightening race. Democratic Party fell correspondingly to 47.5%.

MI-04 House — Republican Party slipped 8.5 points to 44.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further.

AZ-08 House — Republican Party slipped 7.5 points to 80.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored.

Alaska Governor — Tom Begich climbed 7.0 points to 55.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored. The Alaska governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

Races on the Razor's Edge

These are the contests where the margin is 5 points or less — the kind of races that keep campaign managers up at night and make election nights unpredictable.

MI-04 House: Republican Party leads at 44.5% over Democratic Party at 43.0% — a true coin flip with just 1.5 points separating them.

Alaska Senate: Mary Peltola leads at 51.0% over Dan Sullivan at 48.5% — within the margin of error with just 2.5 points separating them.

TX-15 House: Republican Party leads at 51.0% over Democratic Party at 47.5% — within the margin of error with just 3.5 points separating them.

Ohio Senate: Democrats leads at 52.5% over Republicans at 48.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

Texas Senate: Democrats leads at 51.5% over Republicans at 47.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

The Big Picture

In the battle for the Senate, control remains genuinely contested with Democratic odds at 52.5%. On the House side, Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 87.5%.

View the full forecast →

4 states vote: Republicans drops 34.0 points to 25.0% in Wisconsin

4 states held primaries on August 11 — Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, Wisconsin. Senate control at 51.5% Democratic House at 87.5% Democratic.

August 11 Primary Results — State by State

Official results are being tabulated by each state’s Secretary of State. Links go to official SOS results pages. Market odds from Polymarket.

Connecticut — Governor

Our model rates this Likely D (D 83.2%, R 16.8%). Key candidates: Josh Elliott (D), Ned Lamont (D) vs. Erin Stewart (R), Ryan Fazio (R). Polymarket: Democrats: 96.5%, Republicans: 2.9% (no significant post-primary movement). CT SOS results →

Minnesota — Senate & Governor

Senate: Our model rates this Likely D (D 92.8%, R 7.2%). Key candidates: Angie Craig (D), Melisa Lopez Franzen (D) vs. Adam Schwarze (R), David Hann (R). Polymarket: Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 6.5%. Post-primary move: Democrats -1.0 pts. MN SOS results →

Governor: Our model rates this Safe D (D 99.8%, R 0.2%). Key candidates: Amy Klobuchar (D), Bill Gates Jr. (D) vs. Mike Lindell (R). Polymarket: Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 6.0%. Post-primary move: Democrats -1.0 pts. MN SOS results →

Vermont — Governor

Key candidates: Aly Richards (D), Amanda Janoo (D). Polymarket: Democrats: 8.5%, Republicans: 90.5%. Post-primary move: Republicans -1.0 pts. VT SOS results →

Wisconsin — Governor

Our model rates this Likely D (D 89.0%, R 11.0%). Key candidates: David Crowley (D), Mandela Barnes (D) vs. Tom Tiffany (R). Polymarket: Democrats: 39.5%, Republicans: 59.0%. Post-primary move: Republicans -34.0 pts. WI SOS results →

Model vs. Markets — Where We Disagree

Divergences between our polling model and Polymarket for August 11 primary states.

Gap = Model D% minus Polymarket D%. Positive = model more bullish on Democrats.

Top Movers — All Markets

Biggest day-over-day moves across all markets, not just primary states.

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

View the full forecast →

Republican Party climbs to 82.0% in TX-32 House — up 5.5 points

Republican Party jumped 5.5 points to 82.0% in the TX-32 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 46.5% Democratic and House odds at 86.5%.

What Moved

TX-32 House — Republican Party climbed 5.5 points to 82.0%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored.

Montana Senate — an independent slipped 5.3 points to 10.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further. Republicans rose correspondingly to 89.0%. Senate control overall sits at 46.5% for Democrats.

TX-22 House — Republican Party climbed 5.0 points to 92.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored.

Ohio Governor — Republicans dipped 3.5 points to 45.0%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate in a tightening race. The Ohio governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

TX-15 House — Democratic Party ticked up 3.5 points to 67.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored.

FL-22 House — Republican Party ticked up 3.5 points to 62.0%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored.

WI-01 House — Democratic Party ticked up 3.5 points to 33.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining.

Alaska Governor — Click Bishop dipped 3.4 points to 6.4%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate fading further. The Alaska governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

OH-07 House — Republican Party ticked up 3.0 points to 21.0%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining.

Races on the Razor's Edge

These are the contests where the margin is 5 points or less — the kind of races that keep campaign managers up at night and make election nights unpredictable.

Texas Senate: Republicans leads at 50.5% over Democrats at 49.5% — a true coin flip with just 1.0 points separating them.

Ohio Senate: Democrats leads at 51.5% over Republicans at 49.5% — a true coin flip with just 2.0 points separating them.

Alaska Governor: Bernadette Wilson leads at 33.0% over Tom Begich at 29.5% — within the margin of error with just 3.5 points separating them.

Alaska Senate: Mary Peltola leads at 53.5% over Dan Sullivan at 48.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 5.0 points separating them.

The Big Picture

In the battle for the Senate, control remains genuinely contested with Democratic odds at 46.5%. On the House side, Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 86.5%.

View the full forecast →

Democratic Party drops to 9.5% in NJ-02 House — down 9.0 points

Democratic Party fell 9.0 points to 9.5% in the NJ-02 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 45.5% Democratic and House odds at 88.5%.

What Moved

NJ-02 House — Democratic Party slipped 9.0 points to 9.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further.

AZ-08 House — Democratic Party slipped 8.0 points to 11.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further. Republican Party rose correspondingly to 88.0%.

WI-01 House — Republican Party slipped 7.0 points to 64.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored. Democratic Party rose correspondingly to 30.0%.

FL-25 House — Democratic Party climbed 6.5 points to 68.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored. Republican Party fell correspondingly to 31.5%.

Ohio Governor — Democrats climbed 5.5 points to 51.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate in a tightening race. The Ohio governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

MI-04 House — Republican Party slipped 5.5 points to 57.0%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored.

Alaska Governor — Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins dipped 4.7 points to 12.3%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate fading further. The Alaska governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

Races on the Razor's Edge

These are the contests where the margin is 5 points or less — the kind of races that keep campaign managers up at night and make election nights unpredictable.

Texas Senate: Republicans leads at 50.5% over Democrats at 49.5% — a true coin flip with just 1.0 points separating them.

Ohio Senate: Democrats leads at 51.5% over Republicans at 49.5% — a true coin flip with just 2.0 points separating them.

Ohio Governor: Democrats leads at 51.5% over Republicans at 48.5% — within the margin of error with just 3.0 points separating them.

Alaska Governor: Bernadette Wilson leads at 33.0% over Tom Begich at 29.5% — within the margin of error with just 3.5 points separating them.

Alaska Senate: Mary Peltola leads at 53.5% over Dan Sullivan at 48.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 5.0 points separating them.

The Big Picture

In the battle for the Senate, control remains genuinely contested with Democratic odds at 45.5%. On the House side, Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 88.5%.

View the full forecast →

1 states vote: Democrats surges 1.0 points to 94.5% in Hawaii

1 states held primaries on August 08 — Hawaii. Senate control at 45.5% Democratic House at 87.5% Democratic.

August 08 Primary Results — State by State

Official results are being tabulated by each state’s Secretary of State. Links go to official SOS results pages. Market odds from Polymarket.

Hawaii — Governor

Key candidates: Josh Green (D). Polymarket: Democrats: 93.5%, Republicans: 3.9%. Post-primary move: Democrats +1.0 pts. HI SOS results →

Top Movers — All Markets

Biggest day-over-day moves across all markets, not just primary states.

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

View the full forecast →

Republican Party surges 14.5 points in CO-03 House — now at 59.5%

Republican Party jumped 14.5 points to 59.5% in the CO-03 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 45.5% Democratic and House odds at 87.5%.

What Moved

CO-03 House — Republican Party surged 14.5 points to 59.5%, a significant shift that leaves the candidate now favored.

OH-01 House — Democratic Party surged 12.5 points to 95.0%, a significant shift that leaves the candidate now favored.

Alaska Governor — Treg Taylor cratered 12.4 points to 5.0%, a significant shift that leaves the candidate fading further. Bernadette Wilson rose correspondingly to 33.5%. The Alaska governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

TX-35 House — Republican Party cratered 10.0 points to 43.5%, a significant shift that leaves the candidate fading further. Democratic Party rose correspondingly to 56.5%.

OH-07 House — Republican Party slipped 7.5 points to 24.0%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further. Democratic Party rose correspondingly to 75.5%.

TX-15 House — Republican Party climbed 7.0 points to 33.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining.

WA-05 House — Republican Party climbed 7.0 points to 75.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored.

Races on the Razor's Edge

These are the contests where the margin is 5 points or less — the kind of races that keep campaign managers up at night and make election nights unpredictable.

Ohio Senate: Democrats leads at 51.5% over Republicans at 49.5% — a true coin flip with just 2.0 points separating them.

Texas Senate: Republicans leads at 51.5% over Democrats at 49.5% — a true coin flip with just 2.0 points separating them.

Alaska Senate: Mary Peltola leads at 52.5% over Dan Sullivan at 48.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

Alaska Governor: Bernadette Wilson leads at 33.5% over Tom Begich at 29.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.0 points separating them.

The Big Picture

In the battle for the Senate, control remains genuinely contested with Democratic odds at 45.5%. On the House side, Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 87.5%.

View the full forecast →

1 states vote: Republicans surges 1.5 points to 95.7% in Tennessee

1 states held primaries on August 06 — Tennessee. Senate control at 45.5% Democratic House at 87.5% Democratic.

August 06 Primary Results — State by State

Official results are being tabulated by each state’s Secretary of State. Links go to official SOS results pages. Market odds from Polymarket.

Tennessee — Senate & Governor

Senate: Key candidates: Bill Hagerty (R). Polymarket: Democrats: 2.5%, Republicans: 94.2%. Post-primary move: Republicans +1.5 pts. TN SOS results →

Governor: Our model rates this Safe R (D 0.0%, R 100.0%). Key candidates: Adam Kurtz (D), Carnita Atwater (D) vs. John Rose (R), Marsha Blackburn (R). TN SOS results →

Top Movers — All Markets

Biggest day-over-day moves across all markets, not just primary states.

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

View the full forecast →

Republican Party plummets 23.5 points in MI-04 House — now at 40.0%

Republican Party fell 23.5 points to 40.0% in the MI-04 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 44.5% Democratic and House odds at 86.5%.

What Moved

MI-04 House — Republican Party cratered 23.5 points to 40.0%, a dramatic swing that leaves the candidate fading further. Democratic Party rose correspondingly to 45.5%.

WA-05 House — Democratic Party surged 15.0 points to 34.1%, a dramatic swing that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining. Republican Party fell correspondingly to 66.5%.

MI-08 House — Republican Party cratered 11.4 points to 1.1%, a significant shift that leaves the candidate fading further. Democratic Party rose correspondingly to 93.5%.

WA-03 House — Democratic Party climbed 7.5 points to 89.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored.

TX-15 House — Republican Party climbed 7.0 points to 37.0%, a notable move that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining.

MI-10 House — Democratic Party climbed 7.0 points to 71.5%, a notable move that leaves the candidate now favored. Republican Party fell correspondingly to 27.5%.

Races on the Razor's Edge

These are the contests where the margin is 5 points or less — the kind of races that keep campaign managers up at night and make election nights unpredictable.

Ohio Senate: Democrats leads at 51.5% over Republicans at 50.5% — a true coin flip with just 1.0 points separating them.

Alaska Governor: Bernadette Wilson leads at 27.5% over Tom Begich at 26.5% — a true coin flip with just 1.0 points separating them.

Alaska Senate: Mary Peltola leads at 51.5% over Dan Sullivan at 49.0% — within the margin of error with just 2.5 points separating them.

Texas Senate: Republicans leads at 51.5% over Democrats at 48.5% — within the margin of error with just 3.0 points separating them.

The Big Picture

In the battle for the Senate, Republicans maintain the advantage with Democratic odds at 44.5%. On the House side, Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 86.5%.

View the full forecast →

5 states vote: Democrats drops 4.5 points to 60.0% in Michigan

5 states held primaries on August 04 — Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington. Senate control at 44.5% Democratic House at 86.5% Democratic.

August 04 Primary Results — State by State

Official results are being tabulated by each state’s Secretary of State. Links go to official SOS results pages. Market odds from Polymarket.

Arizona — Governor

Our model rates this Safe D (D 99.0%, R 1.0%). Key candidates: Katie Hobbs (D) vs. Andy Biggs (R), David Schweikert (R). Polymarket: Democrats: 79.0%, Republicans: 21.5%. Post-primary move: Republicans -1.0 pts. AZ SOS results →

Kansas — Senate & Governor

Senate: Our model rates this Toss-up (D 52.1%, R 47.9%). Key candidates: Christy Davis (D), Erik Murray (D) vs. Roger Marshall (R). Polymarket: Democrats: 17.0%, Republicans: 83.5% (no significant post-primary movement). KS SOS results →

Governor: Key candidates: Cindy Holscher (D), Ethan Corson (D) vs. Charlotte O'Hara (R), Doug Billings (R). KS SOS results →

Michigan — Senate & Governor

Senate: Our model rates this Lean D (D 67.4%, R 32.6%). Key candidates: Abdul El-Sayed (D), Gary Peters (D) vs. Bernadette Smith (R), Frederick Heurtebise (R). Polymarket: Democrats: 64.5%, Republicans: 36.5%. Post-primary move: Democrats -4.5 pts. MI SOS results →

Governor: Our model rates this Lean D (D 66.0%, R 34.0%). Key candidates: Chris Swanson (D), Jocelyn Benson (D) vs. Aric Nesbitt (R), John James (R). Polymarket: Democrats: 83.5%, Republicans: 15.5%, an independent: 1.2%. Post-primary move: Republicans +1.0 pts. MI SOS results →

Missouri — Governor

Polymarket: a Republican: 100.0% (no significant post-primary movement). MO SOS results →

Washington — Governor

Key candidates: Bob Ferguson (D) vs. Ethan Brunton (R). Polymarket: a Democrat: 100.0% (no significant post-primary movement). WA SOS results →

Model vs. Markets — Where We Disagree

Divergences between our polling model and Polymarket for August 04 primary states.

Gap = Model D% minus Polymarket D%. Positive = model more bullish on Democrats.

Top Movers — All Markets

Biggest day-over-day moves across all markets, not just primary states.

Source: Polymarket & Kalshi. Only moves >2 points shown.

Tossup Watchlist

Races where the margin is 5 points or less — the ones to watch.

View the full forecast →

Democratic Party surges 14.5 points in TX-15 House — now at 66.5%

Democratic Party jumped 14.5 points to 66.5% in the TX-15 House market, the biggest move of the day. Senate control sits at 45.5% Democratic and House odds at 85.5%.

What Moved

TX-15 House — Democratic Party surged 14.5 points to 66.5%, a significant shift that leaves the candidate now favored. Republican Party fell correspondingly to 30.0%.

Alaska Governor — Treg Taylor slipped 5.3 points to 21.1%, a notable move that leaves the candidate fading further. The Alaska governor's mansion is on the ballot this cycle.

Michigan Senate — Republicans ticked up 4.5 points to 36.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining. Democrats fell correspondingly to 64.5%. Senate control overall sits at 45.5% for Democrats.

NY-17 House — Republican Party dipped 4.5 points to 28.0%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate fading further.

OH-15 House — Democratic Party ticked up 4.5 points to 23.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining.

PA-16 House — Republican Party ticked up 4.0 points to 89.0%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored.

CO-08 House — Republican Party ticked up 3.5 points to 26.0%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate trailing but gaining.

OH-07 House — Democratic Party dipped 3.0 points to 62.5%, a modest shift that leaves the candidate now favored.

Races on the Razor's Edge

These are the contests where the margin is 5 points or less — the kind of races that keep campaign managers up at night and make election nights unpredictable.

Ohio Senate: Democrats leads at 50.5% over Republicans at 50.0% — a true coin flip with just 0.5 points separating them.

Alaska Governor: Bernadette Wilson leads at 27.5% over Tom Begich at 25.5% — a true coin flip with just 2.0 points separating them.

Wisconsin Governor: Democrats leads at 51.5% over Republicans at 48.5% — within the margin of error with just 3.0 points separating them.

PA-01 House: Republican Party leads at 52.0% over Democratic Party at 47.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 4.5 points separating them.

Texas Senate: Republicans leads at 52.5% over Democrats at 47.5% — a narrow but real gap with just 5.0 points separating them.

The Big Picture

In the battle for the Senate, control remains genuinely contested with Democratic odds at 45.5%. On the House side, Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 85.5%.